Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s invitation to leaders of SAARC countries to attend his swearing-in ceremony has been termed a foreign policy masterstroke. The highlight was arguably Pakistani PM Nawaz Sharif’s attendance, despite a delay in accepting the invitation.
In the past the BJP had criticised the former UPA government’s Pakistan policy as too soft, and had vowed to take a tough stance against Pakistan in the run up to the elections. However, Indian leaders must recognise the psychological underpinnings of the Pakistani state, which is central to taming the traditionally fractious relationship.
The military has built the identity of the Pakistani state in opposition to India, and this perpetuation and sustainment of the Indian threat is what has made the Pakistani army the most powerful and omnipresent institution in its polity. This siege mentality has legitimised its rule in the eyes of ordinary Pakistanis and enabled it to extract the exorbitant funding and revenues that it does, consequently derailing pro-democracy forces and civil society. The military’s unprecedented monopoly over Pakistani politics, and the inflated revenue that the myth of the Indian threat derives is explanatory of the lack of incentive for the army to better relations with India.
While a tough response against Pakistan may have been appropriate a few years ago, in recent years the state of affairs seems to have somewhat altered. There is a growing realisation in Pakistan that India no longer poses the largest threat to the country, and in this realisation lies Pakistan’s greatest hope of becoming a ‘normal’ country. The biggest security risks are those stemming from within the country, and not from external sources like India.
The army too is starting to see the light, evident in its shift in threat assessment. Acclaimed author Ahmed Rashid mentions, “The anti-India rhetoric that has been part of Pakistan’s entire make-up for over 50 years has now dramatically altered even within the army, which recognizes that we have to deal with the Taliban threat”. As Shekhar Gupta of the Indian Express concedes, “Many Pakistan-watchers, particularly in India, allow our contempt, fear and distrust of the Pakistani army to so cloud our judgment, we fail to see a fundamental, and virtuous change.”
The new Indian government needs to acknowledge this gradual and much-needed change. Adopting a tough posture towards Pakistan, something that many in India believe to be long overdue, would be the wrong step for the new government to take. Thus, Modi’s move to invite leaders of neighbouring countries, including Nawaz Sharif, is a pragmatic one.
Pakistan is a complex country with several centers of powers – the army, the civilian establishment, the ISI and extremist forces. Sharif’s delay in confirming his presence at Modi’s ceremony illustrates this. India needs to be aware that such activities will continue because several players in Pakistan are averse to good relations with India. However, this must not preclude the Modi government from continuing to seek closer ties with a Pakistan that is growing out of its existential negative perception of India.
India must be innovative in normalising its relations with Pakistan and review other tactics including collaborative attempts with other states to diplomatically pressure and stabilise Pakistan, support civilian structures and accelerate economic engagement. Under the leadership of the assertive and dynamic Modi, India is better positioned than ever to do so.
Shairee Malhotra works with the Meetings team at Gateway House
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