Courtesy: Reuters
Two important conclaves held in December 2024 - a Politbureau meeting and the Central Economic Work Conference – set the tone for China’s economic focus in 2025. The economy needs a resurgence, given the domestic environment of low spending and the external threat of high tariffs – the outcome of swapping development for security. In 2025, China’s mandarins will try and find a balance between the two.
Courtesy: Indian Express
On December 18, India’s National Security Advisor Ajit Doval and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi met in Beijing. This came two months after Prime Minister Modi’s bilateral meet with President Xi on the sidelines of the BRICS Summit in Russia. Lt Gen S L Narasimhan, Adjunct Distinguished Fellow, National Security and China Studies, discusses recent developments in India-China ties and how New Delhi can manage its complex relationship with Beijing.
Courtesy: Atlantic Council
Xi Jinping’s visit to South America to attend the APEC and G20 meetings had multiple goals. To inaugurate a new gateway for China in Peru’s Chancay port, sign three dozen cooperation agreements with Brazil, and make nice with the continent’s nations from Chile to the Honduras. Did it succeed in expanding China’s influence in the region? Most certainly, yes.
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There is much discussion these days on the world order and the continuation or demise of the current format. To understand why this powerful agglomeration of states and rules is now being questioned, it is necessary to understand the role of China, its co-option of the institutions and rules of the world order, and the parallel order it is creating centred around itself.
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China has just announced a grand stimulus for its economy. An analysis of the outcome of the Third Party Plenum held in July, where many of these measures take birth, shows that despite the optimistic planning, China is readjusting its ambitions for future stability.
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Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina's forced resignation on August 5 came amidst prolonged and violent anti-government protests. Lt Gel S L Narasimhan, the Adjunct Distinguished Fellow for China and National Security Studies, Gateway House, analyzes the role of the army and external actors, and the strategic and security implications for India.
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China and India both give great importance to their neighbours – the former through its Friendly Neighbourhood policy, the latter through Neighbourhood First. Although China has been increasing its influence in the region, narratives that say that India is losing out to China lack in-depth analysis. To deduce the future trajectory of China in South Asia, it is important to study both China’s and India’s relations with each of these countries, as also with each other.
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Comparing India and China’s defence forces reveals that it is more than just a numbers game. Increased defence spending and modernization with AI and quantum computing has given China a substantial edge over India’s military capability. India is working to close the gap with an energetic focus on indigenous procurement and expanding international exercises.
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The foreign policy of the new government in India will likely be a continuum from previous years. But as election outcomes in other parts of the democratic world witness a transformation, India should prepare for flexibility in its policy – and keep up its guard.
Courtesy: South China Morning Post
The recently-concluded National People’s Congress or Two Sessions in Beijing didn’t surprise much. But a thorough analysis reveals departures from the past – not holding a press interaction after the meeting, and further consolidation of domestic power by the Communist Party of China. Of note to India is the delinking of China’s defence budget from the country’s rate of growth – meaning freedom to enhance its military’s capability.
