Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif’s announcement on June 24 that former President General Pervez Musharraf would be tried for treason, has serious ramifications for the stability of the region. Additional charges of conspiring to assassinate Benazir Bhutto notwithstanding, Musharraf could face the death penalty. The latter was responsible for the sacking of Supreme Court Chief Justice Iftikhar Chaudhry in 2007 and post-reinstatement in 2009, it is in his court that Musharraf’s fate will be decided. It is also worth noting that Army Chief Ashfaq Parvez Kayani and Musharraf share a close relationship.
How will this play out? With the tenures of Chaudhry and Kayani coming to a close at the end of the year, both will be keen to assert themselves in the polity, though with diametrically opposite goals – Chaudhry to indict Musharraf and Kayani presumably to protect him. The verdict will also decide the future role of the Pakistani Army in Pakistani politics. Domestically, an adverse verdict against Musharraf will almost certainly put Pakistan in a state of flux. Internationally, it coincides with the scheduled U.S. pullout from Afghanistan in 2014 – and will impact the outcome.
Not for the first time, former president Musharraf is the key to stability in South Asia.
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