China, Quad and emerging technologies

Technology and innovation are driving societies, economies and geopolitical strategies. The country which excels in these will have a decisive edge in comprehensive national power and can wield substantial influence in the world. There is competition between leading powers in these domains. It is therefore necessary to look at the developments in some emerging technologies from China, the efforts that the Quad is making in those technologies and some actions for collaboration within the Quad grouping.

Space is a domain critical for both civilian and military purposes. Here, China is developing strong capabilities. China currently has 493 operational satellites in space. Over the last five years, Beijing has steadily increased the number of satellite launches, from 39 launches in 2018 to 67 in 2023. In 2024, China plans for 100 space launches. This gives the country the capacity to launch a satellite whenever it is required – for reconnaissance, precision targeting, communication needs, for out-of-area contingencies – and replace a satellite as and when needed. China has the ability to acquire images of any place on Earth in approximately two hours. It has adequate space and ground-based assets for near real time targeting. Here are some highlights:

The BeiDou (Compass) Navigation system (BDS) with its additional features gives China enhanced battlefield transparency, i.e. visibility of covert enemy actions. The BDS satellites have electromagnetic protection. Soon the entire fleet will too.
Anti-satellite weapons, employment of robotic arms and directed energy weapons allow China to target an adversary’s satellites.
Its civilian space capabilities have dual-use facilities.
China is planning a space based solar power station, the proposal for which was approved a decade ago in 2013.
China launched a successful mission to Mars in 2020 and is contemplating a colony or base on the Moon for deep space exploration. It will compete with the U.S.’ Artemis Accords, a three-year space exploration international partnership to which India is also a signatory.
The increasing interest in nano satellites will enable China to perform many tasks inimical to its adversaries.

All these accomplishments give China a unique edge – and a time slot in which to exert its influence. In 2028, Russia’s cooperation with the International Space Station (ISS) will end and the ISS will cease operations in 2030. China will then have the only functional space station available – till India’s indigenous space station becomes operational in 2035. The intervening five years will allow China greater influence in space and international space-based matters.

The Quad countries have 3,124 satellites operational, compared with China’s 493 satellites. Collectively, the Quad has stronger space capabilities, but not for long as China is catching up fast. This is the time to step up cooperation, and the Quad has several initiatives underway to use space for regional development. A Quad working group has been established to exchange satellite data for climate change monitoring, disaster preparedness and space domain challenges. A network of ground-based sensors for space situation awareness and data-sharing agreements to avoid collisions and track space debris in orbit is being worked upon. The Quad is working on using space-based assets for sustainable development on Earth. This will be for the Indo-Pacific region, where there will also be consultation on norms, principles, guidelines and rules for ensuring the long-term sustainability of outer space.

China is one of the world’s cyber powers. Its investment in cyber security is impressive: $38.6 billion till 2023. A full quarter of all global cyber attacks are attributed to China, with the number of Chinese personnel involved in cyber warfare being estimated at 50,000 to 100,000 in the civilian sphere and the state-affiliated militia personnel involved in cyber activities is believed to be close to 10 million. Within minutes of detecting a cyber attack, China can shut down its networks and function within its own system. It assiduously carries out cyber reconnaissance against the critical infrastructure of other countries and continuously scans for vulnerabilities in various software after they are made public. Of course, other countries also engage in similar activities. An International Institute for Strategic Studies report in 2021 gave the following cyber capability ratings to China and the Quad countries on a scale of 1-5, thus: US – 5; China – 4.5; India – 3; Japan – 2.5 and Australia – 4.

The Quad has a number of initiatives for cyber. It ran the Quad Cyber Security Challenge in 2023 to promote cyber awareness and good cyber habits, with a good turnout: 85,341 participants from 594 different organisations. In addition, the Quad has a Senior Cyber Group which held its third meeting in Tokyo in December 2023. There, it confirmed its commitment towards a cyber-resilient Indo-Pacific capable of detecting and deterring cyber-attacks. They discussed the sharing of cyber resources to build capacities for the security of cyber infrastructure in the Indo-Pacific, application of international law, cooperation in information technology and operational technology systems, cyber security of the Internet of Things, use of artificial intelligence and the need for reliable, secure and resilient supply chains.

The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) is a keen user of artificial intelligence (AI): for threat identification, network defence and information warfare, for robots and exoskeletons as part of its efforts to “intelligentise” warfare. AI is also being developed for mine detection, image recognition, target identification and classification and unmanned surface and sub-surface vehicles.

Beijing has made considerable progress in the manufacturing and employment of drones, carrying out experiments on using drones in swarms. It has observed keenly the use of kamikaze drones or loitering munitions in the Russia-Ukraine conflict and their ability to attack value targets cost-effectively. The PLA, therefore, is focusing on defending against such drone attacks using both kinetic and non-kinetic modes; China Aerospace Science and Technology Corp. has already developed the CH 901 drone for offensive capability. China predicts that by 2025, use of such lethal autonomous weapons in the battlefield will be common. According to the Global AI Index released by Tortoise on 28th June 2023, the U.S. ranks first, China second, Japan 12th, India 14th and Australia 15th overall on AI capabilities. [1]

China is also a global leader in quantum technologies. In quantum computing, the Chinese quantum computer “Origin Wukong” has a 72-qubit chip, helping China catch up with its U.S. counterparts.

There are quantum communication networks between Beijing and Shanghai and quantum local area networks in those and other cities like Hefei – a total of 4,600 km. Its quantum satellite, Mozi (Micius), was launched in September 2016 and another nano satellite, Jinan 1, in July 2022. China’s quantum key distribution has transmitted such keys over 1,120 km in 2019, enabling it to securely communicate over that distance, and its quantum radar sensing enables the detection of stealth aircraft at a distance of up to 100 km.

In whichever sphere of critical and emerging technologies from AI to biotechnology, quantum computing, nanotechnology to 5G, China is fast catching up with the market leaders.

To maintain their lead, the Quad countries must leverage the capabilities of both, their government organisations and their private sectors. Small moves like increasing the capabilities of the Indo-Pacific countries in meteorology by providing them with satellite pictures are simply not enough. They must accelerate information sharing, capability and capacity building within the Quad, and seriously collaborate, and perhaps even syndicate AI and quantum technologies, to address the immediate challenges of finding both soft and hard kill solutions for drone swarms and the more futuristic ones like Unmanned Underwater Vehicles. Else China will very soon be ahead of the curve – and not looking back.

Lt General SL Narasimhan is Adjunct Distinguished Fellow for National Security and China Studies, Gateway House.

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References

[1] https://www.tortoisemedia.com/intelligence/global-ai/#rankings