GLOBSEC has been organising an annual global security forum in Bratislava, Slovakia, since 2005, which has grown to become an important networking occasion for international security experts from around the world. It was built on the success of the Slovak Atlantic Commission, a committee established to integrate Slovakia into NATO and the European Union. Therefore, it continues to be sponsored by NATO and the Slovak Ministries of Defense, Foreign and European Affairs, along with numerous defence corporations.
The theme of GLOBSEC 2017 was ‘Adapting (to) the Future’. At the outset, speakers sought to identify threats to the liberal order. There was broad agreement that these included: the tottering of the rule of law; the impact of technology and social media on politics, economics and international relations; and the open model of society that is besieged because the media is no longer neutral in a post-truth world and cyber attacks. Russia was identified as being behind all the problems confronting the West–namely, the challenge to democracy and civil society, interference in elections, and disinformation campaigns–all through the misuse of digital space.
This year, it was almost as if two separate conferences were running parallel to each other: while one set of discussions duly dealt with traditional security issues, the other delved deep into newer digital security paradigms, like digital subversion and restriction, combating artificial intelligence, and cyber security.
I participated in the more traditional subjects of global security, trans-Atlantic cooperation, and international relations. While the scale and number of participants have continued to increase every year, the official representation remains limited. Apart from the United States, speakers tend to be from the late entrant countries to the EU and NATO, such as the Visegrad Four (Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia), the three Baltic Republics (Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania), and countries like Croatia, which emerged out of the break-up of Yugoslavia.
The moderators were overwhelmingly from the UK and U.S., which significantly influenced the course of discussions. Brexit was given far more importance, for example, while hardly any time was devoted to Chinese activity in the South China Sea, and the recently concluded Belt and Road Forum.
As expected, there were no speakers from Russia, the identified hostile power, there was only one foreign ministry think tank representative from China, and myself, the lone Indian. What was most surprising was the lack of representation from major European countries, such as Germany and France. Despite having a panel on the Middle East, with refugees and immigration being a major concern, it was perplexing to not have any participants from South European countries, such as Italy or Greece.
By coincidence, the Forum this year took place at the same time as President Trump’s first meeting with NATO in Brussels and the G-7 meeting in Taormina, Italy. There was a mile-wide gap between media reports on the two summits and the description given by the officials who subsequently participated in GLOBSEC panels. The speakers attempted to justify Trump’s incessant hectoring about the Europeans not spending even 2% of GDP on defence by asserting that they should do more for their own security, but muttered on the side-lines that less than 20% of American military forces were currently stationed in Europe.
In retrospect, the participants’ attempts to present a picture of congeniality in interactions with Trump was disingenuous in light of Angela Merkel’s bold statement that the Europe must take its security into its own hands as it can no longer completely rely on traditional allies. German Foreign Minister Sigmar Gabriel’s remark on Trump’s actions “weakening” the West and standing “against the interests of the European Union” was even more openly critical.
The hostility towards Russia reflects a complex past relationship as also future anxieties, particularly on the part of the U.S., the UK, and the East Europeans. In spite of Russia being accused of hybrid warfare, including propaganda and disinformation, no one had the courage to remind the Forum of Edward Snowden’s revelations about American spying. A possible explanation could be the corroboration from data from the Pew Research Centre, suggesting that countries that perceive Russia as a serious threat, were more willing to support NATO and its allies.
The focus on Russia reveals another sad truth. The West, in general, and the U.S., in particular, prefer to focus on sideshows, such as the turmoil in the Middle East, and the threat from Russia, because it is too problematic to acknowledge the challenge from China. Although China is the only peer competitor to the U.S., the Europeans continue to focus short-sightedly on the economic benefits that it offers.
The discussions at the panel on the Middle East, titled ‘Home-grown Solutions for the Middle East’, revolved ironically around the involvement of the U.S., with divergent views coming from the regional countries. For instance, the U.S. perception was that the Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG) was an effective force against the ISIS, while Turkey regarded it a terrorist group.
Other panels devoted to the subject of terrorism had speakers tending to attribute it to the political failures, lack of economic opportunities, and social stagnation in Middle Eastern societies. However, they could not resolve the contradiction between rejecting ‘nation building’ and undertaking the generational effort to modernise these societies.
Speakers tried to reiterate Western unity, in spite of clear indications of deep differences emerging–which only underlined the continued tendency to live in denial. This might explain some of the misguided optics and discussions that unfolded at the Forum.
Neelam Deo attended the GLOBSEC Bratislava Global Security Forum in Bratislava, Slovakia on 26-29 May 2017.
Neelam Deo is Co-founder and Director, Gateway House: Indian Council on Global Relations, Mumbai and is a former Indian Ambassador.
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