The biggest democratic elections in the world are over. The din and dazzle of it, the allegations and counter-allegations notwithstanding, India’s elections drew the attention of the world. The Modi 3.0 term has begun. What is expected, especially with the great powers?
The portfolio of ministers in the new government indicates a continuation of policies from the previous term, as important ministries have the same leaders, ensuring continuity.
On the foreign policy front, there appears to be no change. This is borne out by Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s response to Pakistan’s Former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif’s congratulatory message, “advancing the well-being and security of our people shall always remain our priority”, which is a euphemism for “terrorism and talks cannot go together”.[1] In response to the more perfunctory congratulatory message from the Chinese Embassy in New Delhi, India’s foreign ministry spokesperson, Randhir Jaiswal said, “Will continue to pursue efforts towards normalisation of India-China ties based on mutual respect, mutual interest and mutual sensitivity”,[2] conveying the existing stand that disengagement, de-escalation and an understanding that both sides will not try to change the status quo on the Line of Actual Control (LAC) unilaterally, is a pre-requisite for improving the bilateral. Therefore, on relations with Pakistan and China, the existing policy will continue.
The unusual visit of a bipartisan U.S. Congressional delegation to India led by former Speaker Nancy Pelosi[3] and particularly their meeting with His Holiness the Dalai Lama on June 19, has raised hackles in China. China’s response was expected criticism – but this time it is more against the U.S. and muted against India. This can mean two things. One, earlier also U.S. officials have met His Holiness and therefore the criticism is only against the U.S., and two, India can expect a reaction from China in other areas, either a political one or along the LAC.
This was preceded by the June 17 visit of Jake Sullivan, the National Security Adviser of the U.S. to pursue the U.S.-India initiative on Critical and Emerging Technology or iCET[4], which aims to expand cooperation in space, semiconductors, AI, quantum technology, biotechnology, and clean energy, specifically “to create a safer and more prosperous Indo-Pacific region”.[5] With the U.S. too, it appears that India’s relationship will further strengthen under PM Modi’s third term.
On the subcontinent, India’s Neighbourhood First commitment was visible in the invitation to the South Asian neighbourhood countries to attend the swearing in ceremony. All of them, including Mauritius (but except Pakistan) attended. This included Mohamed Muizzu, the President of the Maldives who, despite the sub-optimal relations between India and the Maldives, was invited and present at the ceremony. This is a manifestation of a maturing Indian foreign policy. Bangladesh Prime Minister Begum Sheikh Hasina was in India for a state visit from June 21- 24, strengthening the Neighbourhood First policy.
These engagements must be seen in the context of other important elections taking place, especially in the U.S. and Europe.
The recent EU elections saw the rise of the right parties. In particular, the National Rally, a far-right party under Marine Le Pen, is expected to win the upcoming polls in France; but the chances of a coalition government still exist. Either way, like the U.S., France’s foreign policy of deepening engagement with India will continue.[6] With the EU more broadly, the divided mandate is likely to delay the passing of legislations on climate change energy and migration, among others.[7] India may have opportunities here to improve relations with the EU in trade, technology and defence. In this environment, perhaps the long-brewing EU-India Free Trade Agreement will find expression.[8]
The battle for the U.S. presidency will intensify from now on. India-U.S. relations have been steady and on an upward climb under current U.S. President Joe Biden. Will it change should former President Donald Trump win the U.S. elections? Unlikely. The India-U.S. relationship is cemented, and will deepen irrespective of whichever party wins office in the U.S. External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar reminds that under Trump, “Like any relationship, there were issues but overall …in those four years did our relationship deepen? Did it grow? Absolutely, it did”.[9] There is a significant China dimension to the U.S. elections too. Should Trump return to power, the U.S.-China bilateral may come under further strain.
Over the next five years, U.S.-China political and economic relations are likely to be one of contestation, irrespective of who comes to power in the U.S. in January 2025. Economically, China may continue growing at 4-5%. Despite China’s economic slowdown, its defence budget will keep increasing at 7-10%. This, combined with the technological advances that China has been working on, will reduce the gap in the military power between U.S. and China. It will enable China to maintain its aggressive behaviour in the South China Sea and beyond. Significantly, the PLA Navy may have an increased presence in the Indian Ocean.
In this backdrop, India-U.S. relations will only strengthen, especially if India maintains its economic growth of 7-8% in the coming years. Militarily, India will expand, as defence reforms, technological absorption and acquisitions of weapons and equipment continue, especially in cooperation with the U.S. India’s influence in the Indian Ocean region will increase.
The deepening rapport between the U.S. and India will surely impact India-China relations. There are three possible scenarios for the next five years. One, the status quo will continue. That means India will continue to have a trade deficit with China, Indian companies will still have restricted access and non-tariff barriers by China will persist. Two, China’s aggression could increase, especially the face-offs on the Line of Actual Control (LAC) and the political contest in the international arena. India and China will vie for influence in the Global South, China will keep India out of the Nuclear Suppliers Group, block permanent membership of the UN Security Council and the proscribing of terrorists. Three, rapprochement, where China and India come to an agreement on disengagement, de-escalation and maintaining peace along the LAC based on the Three Mutuals of mutual respect, mutual sensitivity and mutual interest. Given China’s focus on the U.S. competition, scenarios one and three are more likely. That bodes well bilaterally and for Asia.
Whichever way it turns, India will have to be on guard, ready for both the challenges and the opportunities. The next five years will present India with many options to improve its stature in the comity of nations. Hopefully, the choices made will be to India’s advantage, while simultaneously also maintaining its prized strategic autonomy.
Lt General SL Narasimhan is the Adjunct Distinguished Fellow for National Security and China Studies, Gateway House.
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References
[1] Narendra Modi (@narendramodi), “Appreciate your message @NawazSharifMNS. The people of India have always stood for peace, security and progressive ideas. Advancing the well-being and security of our people shall always remain our priority.” X (formerly, Twitter), June 10, 2024, 6:33 PM, https://x.com/narendramodi/status/1800151780241883357
[2] Randhir Jaiswal (@MEAIndia), “Thank you @MFA_China for congratulating PM @narendramodi on his election victory. Will continue to pursue efforts towards normalisation of India-China ties based on mutual respect, mutual interest and mutual sensitivity.” X (formerly Twitter), June 8, 2024, 2:40 PM, https://x.com/MEAIndia/status/1799368343591530603
[3] “Pelosi Meets with 14th Dalai Lama in India, Reaffirms Congressional Support for Tibet,” Congresswoman Nancy Pelosi, June 19, 2024, https://pelosi.house.gov/news/press-releases/pelosi-meets-14th-dalai-lama-india-reaffirms-congressional-support-tibet
[4] “JOINT FACT SHEET: The United States and India Continue to Chart an Ambitious Course for the Initiative on Critical and Emerging Technology,” The White House Briefing Room, June 17, 2024, https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2024/06/17/joint-fact-sheet-the-united-states-and-india-continue-to-chart-an-ambitious-course-for-the-initiative-on-critical-and-emerging-technology/
[5] “US-India bond strengthened by Jake Sullivan’s visit,” IndBiz, June 18, 2024. https://indbiz.gov.in/us-india-bond-strengthened-by-jake-sullivans-visit/.
[6] Ingrid Melander, “France election 2024: how does it work and what’s next?”, Reuters, June 18, 2024, https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/three-way-run-offs-horse-trading-what-happens-next-french-elections-2024-06-30/
[7] Himani Pant, “Key Takeaways from the EU Parliament Elections 2024,” Indian Council on World Affairs, June 18, 2024. https://www.icwa.in/show_content.php?lang=1&level=3&ls_id=10976&lid=6980.
[8] James Crabtree, Manisha Reuter, “Rebooting EU-India relations: How to unlock post-election potential,” European Council on Foreign Relations, April 17, 2024, https://ecfr.eu/article/rebooting-eu-india-relations-how-to-unlock-post-election-potential/.
[9] Fareha Naaz, “In those 4 years….’: Jaishankar answers why ‘India-US ties bloomed during Donald Trump’s presidency”, Livemint, February 25, 2024, https://www.livemint.com/politics/in-those-4-years-jaishankar-answers-why-india-us-ties-bloomed-during-donald-trumps-presidency-11708842022653.html.