The four-hour journey by high-speed train from Beijing’s Fengtai station southwards to the ancient city of Luoyang Longman in Henan province is a smooth ride. The 1,417 km distance passes through China’s fields, villages, towns and cities, and they are all highly developed. The railcar is efficient and modern, better even than those of today’s Europe, and business class is like Amtrack of the 1990s: fit for a busy, prosperous businessman.
But in this first-world ambience, the state is never too far. Along the perfectly geometrically-groomed rail lines, highways and greenery, are the thousands of high-rise ghost buildings of China, side-by-side with the ambitious public messaging.
“Luoyang County has to reach a GDP of 100 billion yuan,” says a sign en route to Luoyang National University.
“A new development period and implementation of new development ideas,” says one along the villages, which have two and three-storey homes, and these days also a Taoist temple.
Five years ago, the one-child policy slogans were also visible. It’s changed now, but it’s too late: young people don’t want to have more than one child today. Some don’t want any progeny at all.
The pattern of slogans in China tells the story of the country’s striving and progress. In the 1970s, the countryside was filled with boards that said, “Long live Chairman Mao!” As China modernised, it became “More Trade, More Money,” followed by “More Road, More Prospects.” Now, there are roads in inner China, and families that once grew wheat now grow cash crops like fruit to sell in nearby markets. Frequent visitors to China recall how the government made the roads scenic so that farmers could increase their incomes by selling fruits, nuts, souvenirs, and herbal medicines, along the roadways.
Also visible across Chis stretch in south-east and western China, is India, through Buddhism. Luoyang was the capital of nine ancient imperial dynasties and an important centre for Buddhism.
India and China hadn’t spoken to each other since June 15, 2020, when Indian and Chinese troops engaged in a bloody clash following the Chinese incursion into Ladakh’s Galwan Valley. Diplomatic, business and academic exchanges came to a halt, and 30 border talks took place. Eventually on 23rd October, at the BRICS Summit in Kazan, Russia, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese Premier Xi Jinping revived bilateral ties after China agreed to withdraw from the border. This has opened up the prospects of some normalcy in the bilateral, but so far, the status quo remains.
During those four years, India and China restricted their conversations to their civilizational pasts.
In July 2024, the China National Academy of Governance, Beijing, held a closed-door conference on India-China: Cultural Exchanges and Mutual Learning. A small group of Indian and Chinese scholars, experts on the ancient histories and linkages of both civilisations, were invited to exchange views.
It is an appropriate topic at a time when world history is in transition and multilateralism is starting to challenge a unipolar order. This time, a more confident Asia – East, Central, South and West – is at the centre of the change.
The re-emerging Asia is book-ended by the two great civilisations of India and China, both of which are visible on the world stage today, as they were hundreds of years ago. They are not natural partners, but they have common concerns domestically and internationally, stemming from their size – each being over 1.4 billion in population. At home, both seek to employ, educate and provide their citizens with a living standard of moderate comfort; externally, India and China seek an active place in the multilateral order. Geopolitically and strategically, however, they stand apart. For more than a century, the two countries have seen and engaged with each other through the eyes of the West – first Britain, and now the U.S. A better understanding of each other is therefore necessary, both commonalities and differences, for both reside in Asia and are the only two countries of their size and kind in the world.
Their greatest commonality is size. As the only two nations with large populations and comprising 37% of the world, China and India have to follow a path of development that is not dissimilar. Different political and economic systems mean that their pace is at variance, as is their means. Divergent histories mean different economies: China, a champion in the production of goods, India, a champion in services. Nevertheless, comprehending each other’s paths is needed, and there is much they can learn from each other. For, much of what India can be, is visible in China. Much of what India is, can be learned by China.
China reformed early, used the discipline of Communism to make its people work, built and conducted everything at scale and planned for the long term.
China began the reform of its largely rural economy early, in 1978. By the time it was ready to become a member of the WTO in 2001, it was prepared for its transformation. It took the help of the West and Japan, to relearn all it had lost during the Cultural Revolution. It hired Western management and experts, and accommodated Western demands and systems, but denied Western companies access to its large market, allowing them to manufacture at home for export only, and building its own systems instead.
Consequently, China understands discipline. This is the outcome of Confucianism, and later communism as a political system, where there is a single command and not multiple voices and views. A multiplicity of voices may reside within the Communist Party, but not outside of it. Public messaging on personal and national discipline is ongoing – since the days of Chairman Mao, and now, in the time of President Xi Jinping. Like communism everywhere, it has produced excellence in the areas of sport and lately, science. The choices offered to the public are not of thought, but mostly consumer choices.
China understands scale. It thinks, plans, builds and implements at scale. From schools to factories to cities, highways to ports, China has mastered scale. This enabled it to become the world’s factory, to export everything it produces. It has inserted itself into simple and sophisticated global supply chains, and grown them substantially. China envisioned its biggest foreign policy project, the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), at scale. The China State Construction Co, one of the implementors of the BRI, has completed 1,000 projects in 100 countries each worth over $100 million, over 30 years.
Foreign policy thinking at scale has enabled China to use its young talent and embed it in the international system[1], particularly in the UN and its affiliates like the World Intellectual Property Organization (WIPO) and International Telecommunication Union (ITU), through which China has aligned its long-term planning. Chinese companies have global technology, capacity and scale and are now linked to the UN systems: For instance, through the ITU and WIPO, Chinese national champions like Huawei and its standards are embedded and implemented in UN development work in critical geopolitical areas like the Pacific Islands; the UN Industrial Development Organisation (UNIDO) endorses and is connected to the BRI.
This has helped China lift its population out of poverty and become what is now acknowledged by the World Bank to be an “upper middle-income country.[2]”
Table 1: Chinese Communist and Indian political slogans over the years
| China | India |
| Long Live Chairman Mao | Garibi Hatao (Remove poverty) |
| More Trade, More Money | Roti, Kapra, Makaan (Food, Clothing, Shelter) |
| More Road, More Prospects | Bijli, Sadak, Paani (Electricity, Roads, Water) |
| Having Only One Child is Good | Shiksha, Vikas, Udyog (Education, Development, Industry) |
| Let 1,000 Flowers Bloom | Sabka Saath, Sabka Vikas (Together with all, development for all) |
| Harmonious Society | Sabka Saath, Sabka Vikas, Sabka Vishwas (Together with all, development for all, with faith) |
| One is too Few, Two are just Right | Viksit Bharat 2047 (Developed India by 2047) |
| A new Development Period and Implementation of New Development Ideas | |
| Luong County has to Reach GDP of 100 billion Yuan |
July 2024 revealed a China that compares favourably to the pre-Covid China of 2018. It shows the remarkable journey the country has taken over just the last six years, establishing it firmly as a nation of educated, higher-income citizens. China’s double-digit growth of 14% in 2007, moderated to 6.8% in 2018, just as its tech sector was taking off. During Covid, growth was just 2.2%[3], a shock to the system.
Nevertheless, Beijing used its Covid years well, with continued ambitions on reform, discipline and scale, to complete the buildout of its physical infrastructure. It is now at first-world levels, and given China’s expertise, sometimes even more advanced. Public-use transport, buildings and arenas are grand, large and landscaped. The streets of China’s towns and cities are multimodal and meticulous, all with graded pavements; the first-, second- and often third-tier cities have wide green medians, almost as resplendent as those on New York’s Park Avenue. Villages have concrete roads and multiple-storey buildings. The Japanese and German cars of 2018 have been replaced with Teslas and Chinese-made EVs.
The rise of China’s human capital is on full display: from just 18 PhDs in 1978, China awarded 56,000 doctorates in 2022. That’s second to the 71,000 awarded by the U.S.[4], and twice that of India’s 28,000[5] PhD degrees. At the lower levels, the estimated 7 million delivery persons in China have school or vocational degrees, and some in the business are overeducated. (India’s entire gig economy workers are estimated at 7.7 million.[6]).
For an Indian, there is much that is familiar in China. A large population of both rural classes and the educated (China has 500 million rural population, India has 900 million), internal migration from villages to towns and cities in search of work, a dedication to education and family, a tech-savvy citizenry and economy. Post-COVID, there are also visible, in public, the green sprouts of Buddhism; the Chinese Communist Party now refers to it as one of its three “philosophies” along with Taoism and Confucianism.
India has similar compulsions but took a different path – one that was uneven, often with hesitations, accommodative to a fault, democratic, and culturally diverse, but which is starting to achieve similar goals of development, wealth creation, cultural preservation and self-respect.
In this effort, there is much that India can learn from China, in terms of discipline, scale, long-term thinking, and deep reform. Some of that began to take place under the Narendra Modi government. As chief minister of Gujarat, he visited China several times, saw its progress first-hand, and implemented some of it in his state. As Prime Minister, he brought discipline, long-term thinking and reform to his office.
India now has commitments to large infrastructure projects, from city Metro transit to highways, ports, and airports. Over the past 10 years, India has seen a 500% increase in its highway budget, with a 60% increase in the road network[7]. Railways have seen a substantial upgrade, with extensive electrification, 100 new trains added and 1,318 stations being upgraded. The Metro network has quadrupled to 945km, with another 919km being added in 26 cities. Air connectivity is a big leap, with 545 new domestic routes, and at 158, more than double the number of airports in the country. Waterways and ports have seen slower development, but they are picking up pace.
Domestic and foreign investors are participating and funding in the large infrastructure buildout, particularly from Japan and West Asia. By 2025, $1.4 trillion[8] will have been spent in this sector. As in China, new roads bring markets closer to both producers and consumers. It also brings schools closer to students. And it is here, that what China does with centralized planning, India does through its democracy and society. Government schemes ensure there are state schools every 5 kilometres; India’s competitive politics ensure that students are incentivized to attend school. Many states provide students, especially girls, with cycles to travel to school; across India, the parents – and now social organisations like Akshaya Patra – ensure that all children receive a hot, nutritious mid-day meal. School enrollment rates in India are over 95%, in no small part thanks to these social and local political interventions.
Democracy ensures the representation of diverse groups and checks and balances to state power.
India has more than 2,000 ethnic groups, and 22 official languages. All are fully represented on the national stage – from the President, Draupadi Murmu, who is from the Santhal tribal community of eastern India to the private cable and state broadcasters which have channels in over 22 languages.
The cultural diversity lent its expression in the Indian film industry, which produces over 1,800 films a year[9] in over 20 languages. Many of them are now recognized with international awards like the Oscars, Golden Globe, and the Palme d’Or at Cannes. Through film, traditional Indian dance and music have evolved, to accommodate modern idioms – and international resonance, including in China.
Through film also, younger generations are able to maintain their contact with tradition, at home and abroad, and adjust to India’s changing social mores. Religiosity across all faiths is increasing. A 2022 Pew study shows that 97% of Indians believe in God, feel “very free” to practice their faith, and “borrow from one another’s beliefs in ways that Westerners might find baffling.”[10] Their Chinese counterparts may be catching up. The Pew Research Center[11] studied the Chinese General Survey Data of 2018, which showed that 33% of Chinese believed in Buddha and/or bodhisattva. This is evident across the main Buddhist tourist centres in China, like the White Horse Temple and the Longmen Grottoes, and even the Potala Palace in Tibet, which are thronged with thousands of young Chinese seeking the blessings of Buddha.
| Li Li, Vice Dean and Research Fellow at the Institute of International Relations, Tsinghua University“We are not trying to build a new school of thought of Eastern civilisation but apply our Eastern civilisation and use its nutrition to resolve current world problems… Vedanta [is] similar to what we believe in Tao, i.e. Atman – everything is interconnected. We also talk about family. Therefore, we understand India. We never had large-scale conflict like West because of the openness of Eastern civilisations and philosophies.” |
The development patterns of India and China are still divergent. India may not meet China’s level in the near future, but its managerial power has global reach. The 1970s, 80s and 90s had uneven growth, and India was unable to create enough manufacturing jobs for its educated. Many, especially the engineers, left to go overseas for economic opportunities. Several of those who stayed created world-class software businesses at home and a new wave of globalization in the 2000s, giving rise to IT hubs like Bangalore, Hyderabad, Chennai and Pune. Those who did leave, have become CEOs of multinational corporations from Citibank to Mastercard, Microsoft, Google, Deutsche Bank, Softbank, Pepsi and Chanel. India is now a critical part of the global digital services supply chain and a producer of top management cadres. Expatriate Indians are increasingly in the bureaucracies and political leadership of their adopted home countries.
Apart from bringing business to the country, the goodwill and trust earned by these global leaders enabled India’s inward-looking foreign policy to transform with confidence. Relations with non-traditional allies like the U.S., Japan, EU, and West Asia, have expanded dramatically. This has helped to keep a vital balance in today’s polarised world.
| What China wants | What India wants |
| Ease of movement for its companies | Chinese army off its borders |
| Journalists’ visas | Trade equivalence |
| Direct flights | Access to 7,500 ancient Indian manuscripts |
Now that Asia’s second giant is on the rise, it is time for both to reconnect with their past, linked first by knowledge, and then trade.
| India was viewed by China as ‘the West’ – for indeed it is to the west of China. It was the birthplace of profound civilisational ideas, long before Greece. It attracted Chinese monks and travellers, who for 1,000 years translated Sanskrit literature into Chinese, at scale. India’s early engagement with China was in 217 BC, when Buddhist scholars came to China, under the Qin dynasty. The trading began in silks and cotton. If China had the Silk Route, India had the Cotton Route. It was cosmopolitan in nature, and multilateral. The Han dynasty was contemporaneous with the Mauryan Empire, the Kushans, Persia and the Roman Empire. A network of shifting caravan routes connected distant markets, towns and oases to each other.These trans-Asian routes were disrupted when the Europeans entered Asia – especially with Britain’s victory in the First Opium War in 1839-42, which gave British and European trading houses the upper hand. Since then, India and China have learned about each other, not directly, but indirectly, through the West. From Britain to America, the young learn each other’s history and political inclinations through a Western lens. |
Both countries have heft: at 1.4 billion each, they comprise 37% of the planet’s people, and nearly 30% of the world GDP – China at 19%[12], and India, nearly ten per cent.
Whichever way they lean, separately or together, counts; it changes the global direction.
Manjeet Kripalani is the Executive Director at Gateway House.
A version of this article was first published by The Print.
References
[1] ‘China’s Expanding Influence on the UN System,’ Gateway House, https://www.gatewayhouse.in/chinas-expanding-influence-un-system/
[2] ‘China’, World Bank https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/china/overview
[3] ‘The COVID-19 Pandemic’s Impact on the Chinese Economy,’ China Research Centre, https://www.chinacenter.net/2023/china-currents/22-1/the-covid-19-pandemics-impact-on-the-chinese-economy/
[4] ‘Survey of Earned Doctorates (SED), 2023,’ National Center for Science and Engineering Statistics, https://ncses.nsf.gov/surveys/earned-doctorates/2023#tabs-1; ‘Number Of Doctoral Degrees Awarded In U.S. Rebounds To All-Time High,’ Forbes, Feb 5, 2024, https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaeltnietzel/2024/02/05/number-of-doctoral-degrees-awarded-in-us-rebounds-to-all-time-high/
[5] ‘Doctorates Awarded by Country,’ World Population Review, https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/doctorates-awarded-by-country
[6] ‘India’s Booming Gig and Platform Economy,’ NITI Aayog, 2022, https://www.niti.gov.in/sites/default/files/2022-06/Policy_Brief_India%27s_Booming_Gig_and_Platform_Economy_27062022.pdf
[7] ‘BUILDING INDIA – 10 YEARS OF INFRASTRUCTURE DEVELOPMENT,’ https://pib.gov.in/PressNoteDetails.aspx?NoteId=151870&ModuleId=3®=3&lang=1
[8] ‘How sustainable practices can drive inclusive growth in modern business,’ EY, https://www.ey.com/en_in/insights/infrastructure/unleashing-india-s-infrastructure-potential-ey-roundtable-insights
[9] https://wifitalents.com/statistic/india-movie-industry/
[10] ‘Exploring Religion and Identity Politics in India,’ PEW Trusts, https://www.pewtrusts.org/en/trust/archive/winter-2022/exploring-religion-and-identity-politics-in-india
[11] ‘Buddhism,’ Pew Research Centre, https://www.pewresearch.org/religion/2023/08/30/buddhism/
[12] ‘China: Share of Global GDP,’ https://www.worldeconomics.com/Share-of-Global-GDP/China.aspx