France has utilised its ongoing presidency of the European Union (EU) Council to host the first-ever ministerial forum on the Indo-Pacific in Paris on February 22 – testimony to Europe’s growing recognition of the strategic significance of the Indo-Pacific region. India was invited to the meeting, and foreign minister, S. Jaishankar, used the occasion to criticise China for making claims on “the global commons”. There was intent in the statement, for France has the largest presence in the Indo-Pacific region among the European powers. It has 12 overseas territories and 1.5 million citizens in the region, giving it an 8% share of the world’s Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ)[1]. Paris and Delhi are familiar friends: they have enjoyed a strategic partnership since 1998 as well as shared values and interests in the Indo-Pacific region, where they can pool their resources.
There are signs of this already happening. The two sides have signed agreements giving reciprocal access to each other’s military facilities, conducting maritime security operations and annual joint naval drills. India and France are co-developing a constellation of satellites to monitor the Indian Ocean. The two sides are also co-operating on combating climate change: France and India worked together to launch the International Solar Alliance (ISA) – dedicated to the promotion of solar energy – at the COP21 United Nations Climate Change Conference held in Paris in 2015.
India is the 5th largest economy in the world, and France the 7th largest. Both are G-20 members, while France is additionally a member of the G-7 and OECD. France is a technological leader with strengths in areas such as defence, aerospace, nuclear energy, food processing, railways, and agricultural research, which have a good fit with India’s strengths in technological manpower. Just before the G-7 summit in Biarritz , France, in August 2019, to which PM Modi too was a special invitee, India and France released a framework of cooperation on cyber security and digital technology, focusing on areas such as 5G technologies, artificial intelligence (AI) and quantum computing. These, as well as cyber security are critical areas in the strategic competition with China. Working with France on 5G, AI and quantum computing will shore up India’s cyber resilience and digital competitiveness. There are opportunities as well for French tech companies operating in Africa to utilise the India Stack, a set of open APIs developed in India, for affordable solutions to problems of identity, data and payments, enabling them to offer competitive digital products.
Overall, France is the 7th largest foreign investor in India with a cumulative Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) of $9.67 billion from April 2000 till September 2020, which makes up 2% of total FDI flows into India in that period. There are more than a thousand French establishments in India, in fields such as defence, automobile, pharmaceuticals, railways, aviation, energy and food processing, while more than 150 Indian companies operate in France, employing more than 7,000 persons. As of 31 December 2019, India’s FDI stock in France was around $190 million.
To break that down, some of the big French names present in India include energy group Total, which took a 20% stake in Adani Green in 2021; Thales, the defence and aviation electronics company that works in data protection, transport and defence electronics in India; Renault and Peugeot Citroen investing in automobile production and R&D; Capgemini, which provides information technology services and consulting; and Sanofi, the pharmaceutical company which has production sites in Goa and Chennai.
To step up trade and investments and thereby transform and modernise its economy, India is now looking at accomplishing free trade agreements with major countries and blocs. As one of India’s biggest trading partners, and one with compatible values and interests, the EU is a key prize here. As president of the EU Council and one of India’s foremost strategic partners, France can play an important role in sealing such an agreement. The Covid-19 crisis showed up the vulnerability of supply chains and France has been among the many countries pushing to diversify supply chains beyond China to shore up their resilience. India can be a major stop here, and an understanding with the EU on trade and investment will put India on the road to economic growth and transformation. The AUKUS pact between Australia, the UK and the U.S. in the Indo-Pacific, led to cancellation of a major nuclear submarine deal between France and Australia. Paris is thus scouting for other partners in the Indo-Pacific, and India can be that partner. At the India-EU Summit in May 2021, both sides decided to resume free trade negotiations, and Delhi should call on Paris to promote and energise them.
While the EU had earlier focused primarily on economic issues, the flurry of Indo-Pacific strategies released by individual EU nations as well as by the EU itself, indicate an enhanced interest in geopolitical matters. That is now set to grow by leaps and bounds, given the degree to which the Russian invasion of Ukraine has galvanised Europe. India has a strong strategic partnership with Russia, but is dependent on it for arms and defence equipment. News reports suggest that Russian arms are performing poorly in Ukraine and their vulnerabilities have been exposed. General Bipin Rawat, the first Chief of Defence Staff of India’s armed forces, died flying in a Mil Mi-17V-5 helicopter, billed as one of the most advanced military transport helicopters available in the Russian arsenal. It is a moot point, therefore, to what extent India can continue to rely heavily on Russian military equipment, particularly as Russian capabilities degrade.
In that light, it is worth exploring whether France can be the new Russia for India. France can provide all that Russia is currently provides to India. It can provide arms such as the 36 Rafale aircraft that have given teeth to the Indian Air Force’s fighter squadrons, transfers of advanced defence technology and the joint manufacture aero engines in India as announced in December 2021, and staunch diplomatic support on India’s core interests. This includes pushing for an enhanced Indian role in global multilateral institutions such as the UN Security Council, the Nuclear Suppliers Group and the Missile Technology Control Regime, besides backing India’s stance on Kashmir.
But for that to happen, India will have to pay attention to some core French and European concerns as well. On the Ukraine issue, for instance, French ambassador to India Emmanuel Lenain has called on Delhi to take a more forceful stand at the UN, adding that France and EU expect partners to uphold the values on which their relationships are based. Lack of sufficient geopolitical understanding could stand in the way of an EU-India trade deal as well.
An era of geopolitics is dawning and Europe is slipping out of its “postmodern” phase. More attention to this will help advance both the India-France and India-Europe relationships.
Swagato Ganguly is Adjunct Fellow, Gateway House, and Consulting Editor, Times of India.
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