Iran after the deal - Gateway House

It’s been a month since President Hassan Rouhani, a moderate diplomat and cleric who came to power in Iran in 2013, delivered on his election promise of “constructive engagement” with the international community and a “win-win solution” to the nuclear standoff.

July 14, the day the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) went through between the P5+1 countries and Iran, will be marked in Iran as its biggest diplomatic achievement of recent times. The agreement brings to an end 12 years of tension and conflict between Iran and the West. The standoff over Iran’s nuclear programme started in late 2002, when the U.S. government accused Iran of developing nuclear weapons. The first sanctions against Iran were imposed by the UN Security Council in 2006 through Resolution 1737. The sanctions economically debilitated Iran, isolating it from the rest of the world.

The reactions last month of the people of Iran reflect the importance of this milestone deal. A poll conducted by the Islamic Republic News Agency’s Survey Center on July 15 in 22 districts of Tehran, shows wide public support for the nuclear agreement: 68.5% of respondents believe it will bring national honour to Iran, and 85.7% are hopeful and optimistic about the future of their country after the conclusion of the nuclear talks[1] .

But shortly after the deal was announced, Alireza Zakani, a conservative member of the Majlis (Iran’s Parliament) warned the people against taking to the streets. Early celebrations, he said, will indicate to the “enemy” that Iran is over-excited.

Alireza is not alone in this view. The Majlis is dominated by conservatives from various parties who tend to have radical opinions, even though some of them are supportive of President Rouhani’s government. In the 2012 legislative elections, conservatives, including major figures such as Morteza Agha Tehrani and Gholam Ali Haddad Adel, won 182 seats in the Majlis. The principal hardliner party is the Front of Islamic Revolution Stability; it consists of supporters of former president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and many of his former cabinet members —they now occupy 85 of the 290 seats.

But most of them have kept a low profile and refrained from making provocative remarks. Their circumspection was, in large part, due to Ayatollah Khameini’s position on the deal. The Supreme Leader sent a complimentary letter to the president, thanking him and his team for their efforts during the two years of negotiations. Although he urged the president to remain cautious in dealing with “Western duplicity,” [2] he made it clear that the diplomatic apparatus had done a great job. Khameini’s very public statement silenced many potential critics who, at a single word in his remarks, would have started criticising Rouhani and his government.

The positions that the Supreme Leader takes will play a crucial role over the next few months, as a national debate rages over the ratification of the deal by the Majlis.

Although Rouhani’s administration says the JCPOA need not be ratified, the hardliner members of parliament don’t want to concede that such an important agreement can be implemented without their green light. They are insisting the deal be ratified by the Majlis.

But a domestic standoff over this issue is unlikely, because the Supreme Leader has not explicitly asked the Majlis to insist on the ratification of the nuclear deal. He has only demanded that the deal be carefully studied and processed through the relevant legal channels. So, with the intervention of the Supreme National Security Council, chaired by Rouhani, the deal will be endorsed and prepared for implementation.

Meanwhile, the rest of the world is already betting on a new Iran and its lucrative market of about 80 million consumers. Important European leaders, including German Minister for Economic Affairs and Energy Sigmar Gabriel, and Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius have, post-deal, led business delegations and met Rouhani as well as other Iranian heads of ministries and commercial enterprises.

India, too, has been active. Even before the deal was signed, Transport Minister Nitin Gadkari visited Tehran and signed a memorandum of understanding on the development of the Chabahar Port. Foreign Secretary S. Jaishankar visited Iran in June as well.

After the deal, on July 25, Indian Finance Secretary Rajiv Mehrishi led a delegation of representatives from the Reserve Bank of India, the state-run UCO Bank, and oil companies, to discuss issues such as India’s payment of dues to Iran for oil exports. The delegation also discussed the revival of bilateral economic ties. Minister of State for Petroleum and Natural Gas Dharmendra Pradhan is scheduled to visit Iran in the coming weeks to explore the expansion and revitalisation of energy cooperation.

Official visitors are coming from Iran to India, too. Deputy Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council of Iran, Ameer Saeed Iravani has visited New Delhi, as has Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif on August 14. Zarif’s trip to India is part of his tour of South Asia, during which he will discuss bilateral relations and President Rouhani’s possible visit to Delhi in the near future.

If by rebuilding its economy and trade ties Iran eventually re-emerges as a regional power, in his remaining two years in office Rouhani should be able to build a strong and reliable country that nobody can demonise or depict as a threat to world peace and security. India, poised to revitalise trade ties with Iran, will be among many countries that can now benefit from robust and growing business with the Persian Gulf country.

Kourosh Ziabari is an award-winning Iranian journalist, media correspondent and peace activist. He is a regular contributor to Gateway House.

This article was exclusively written for Gateway House: Indian Council on Global Relations. You can read more exclusive content here.

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References:

[1] The Results of an Opinion Poll in Tehran: 85.7% of the People Optimistic about the Future of Iran After the Vienna Talks (July 27, 2015), <http://www.asre-eghtesad.com/%D8%A7%D8%AC%D8%AA%D9%85%D8%A7%D8%B9%DB%8C-%D9%88-%D8%B1%D9%81%D8%A7%D9%87/detail/9595>

[2] The letter by President and the Response of the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Revolution (July 15, 2015), <http://www.leader.ir/langs/fa/index.php?p=contentShow&id=13435>