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Renewable energy adoption will be much slower than what was being projected earlier, and China’s curbs on rare-earth magnets will slow down the adoption of electric vehicles. Oil will continue to fuel India’s economy in 2026 and beyond.
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On October 22, 2025, U.S. President Donald Trump imposed sanctions on Russia’s oil giants, Rosneft and Lukoil. The move has clear geopolitical motives—to remove a major supplier from an oversupplied oil market. Indian oil companies, key buyers of Russian crude, now face pressure to cut imports, undermining India’s energy diversification and shaking global oil markets, including the U.S. economy.
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The embargo on rare-earth magnets by China reflects a gap in India’s critical mineral supply chain. India should reduce the need for these minerals by promoting green hydrogen.
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The Quad Foreign Ministers’ Meeting in Washington on 1 July, 2025, underscored the importance of diversified and reliable global supply chains, especially for critical minerals. A Gateway House report shows how to strengthen supply chains for rare earths by creating deep financial markets similar to those that exist for bullion and oil.
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Building a robust engagement with India on energy can help offset some of the economic and political crises that most of India’s neighbours are facing. Smaller South Asian neighbours will benefit from cheaper electricity and oil, paving the way for greater regional economic cooperation.
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China is racing ahead in building powerful emerging technologies for use in space, cyber security, artificial intelligence and quantum computing. The Quad countries still have an edge in these capabilities – but must collaborate in the Indo-Pacific now to maintain their comprehensive national power and global influence to keep China at bay.
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India and France are both large energy importers with a shared interest in stable prices and decarbonisation. They have much to offer each other. France is a leader in nuclear power and green hydrogen, and can help India with the technology it needs. India, with its large and growing market, can help bring down the cost of these technologies and mainstream them.
The global energy market has been disrupted since the Ukraine-Russia conflict. Energy security is now a core concern for most countries and offers the chance to fix the structural problems in the energy generation sector. The interaction between energy security and environmental policies must be reassessed so policies can be consistent for the long term. Gateway House’s Saeeduddin Faridi speaks to Robin Mills, energy expert and CEO of Qamar Energy, about the state of energy markets.
Russia, the founding member of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO), has been hit by Western sanctions on its energy exports and financial system. Still, Ivan Timofeev, Director of Programs at the Russian International Affairs Council, sees new opportunities to be seized. Deepening India-Russia business engagement is one, and the SCO as a constructive and accommodating force is another. K.A. Dhananjay from Gateway House spoke to Timofeev who visited Mumbai recently.
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Sanctions against Russian energy, high cost fuel, heat waves and droughts all at once have raised the price of daily energy use to unprecedented levels and plunged large parts of the world into darkness.
