Latin America Update, May 2014

UNECLAC: economic outlook

The UN Economic Commission for Latin America and Caribbean (ECLAC), in a report released on April 29, has predicted GDP growth of 2.7% for Latin America in 2014, up from 2.5% in 2013.  According to the report, the average public debt of Latin America remained at 32% of GDP, while the external debt was 28.9 % of GDP in 2013. This is in contrast to the higher debt-to-GDP ratios of many European countries and U.S. The average inflation of the region increased to 7.3% in 2013 from 5.6% in 2012. Venezuela had the highest inflation of 56.2 % in 2013 in the region. Latin America’s trade increased marginally to $2.184 trillion in 2013 (from $2.158 trillion in 2012), with exports of $1.101 trillion and imports of $1.083 trillion. Mexico and Brazil traded the most – 30% and 22% respectively of the region’s total trade

IMF and IDB: LatAm economic outlook

The International Monetary Fund, in the World Economic Outlook issued in April 2014, estimates a decrease in Latin America’s GDP growth from 2.75% in 2013 to 2.5% in 2014 – but it forecasts an increase to 3% in 2015. On the other hand, Venezuela’s GDP is expected to contract by 0.5% in 2014 and 1% in 2015. Another study by the Inter-American Development Bank, released on March 30, is more optimistic and projects Latin American and Caribbean growth at 3% in 2014 and 3.3% in 2015.

Ambassador Viswanathan is Distinguished Fellow, Latin America Studies, Gateway House. He is the former Indian Ambassador to Argentina, Uruguay, Paraguay and Venezuela, and Consul General in Sao Paulo.