Observers and students of Maldives’ foreign relations may judge 2024 as an exceptionally important year. If President Mohamed Muizzu’s official voyage to China in January revealed a ‘pivot to China,’ his five-day state visit to India in October witnessed a notable move to bring significant improvement in ties with its closest neighbour. The overall message was clear: the small Indian Ocean state plans to carefully balance its relations with the two major Asian powers, thereby deriving maximum benefit for itself. The former mayor of Male, who ascended to the highest office riding on the ‘India Out’ campaign, has emerged as the President of Maldives, now well-versed in the art of practicing diversification in foreign policy.
Before and soon after his election, Mr. Muizzu made a big issue about his demand for India to withdraw its 75 defence personnel stationed in Maldives. (They were there because of an agreement with the previous government to operate aviation platforms for undertaking humanitarian missions). But ironically enough, the president’s protocol showed little hesitation in accepting New Delhi’s gracious offer for the presidential party to travel in an Indian Air Force plane on the state visit to India.
When asked about the India-Maldives relationship taking a rollercoaster ride in the early months of his presidency, President Muizzu fortunately remembered his country’s history with India. “The historical relationship is intertwined like the roots of a tree, built on centuries of exchanges and values shared,” he said. Finally, he seemed to be on the same page as Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who noted this week that India is Maldives’ “closest neighbour and a steadfast friend,” pointing out that Maldives holds a significant place in both our ‘Neighbourhood First’ policy and the ‘SAGAR’ vision. Maldives’ leaders seem to have internalized this lesson, which is the principal reason why the visit produced positive results.
A close look at the agreements concluded during the visit and remarks made by the two sides reveals a fundamental complementarity: India agreed to show ample generosity by expanding its economic and development cooperation, whereas Maldives promised to be fully sensitive and respectful of India’s security interests and concerns in the Indian Ocean region. This mutuality of interest will continue to be the principal driver in implementing the agreed vision for the ‘Comprehensive Economic and Maritime Security Partnership,’ which was crafted and announced at the beginning of the presidential visit. In fact, prior to the visit, Muizzu spoke of his commitment, in an interview with a leading Indian daily, that Maldives’ actions do not compromise the security and stability of the region, adding significantly, “…we are confident that our engagements with other nations will not undermine India’s security interests.”
Experts have rated the section of the vision document on defence and security cooperation as substantive and forward-looking. Wide-ranging collaboration with the country’s defence and police forces, as well as the Ministry of Defence, has been spelt out formally. Another component of maritime security cooperation is Maldives’ optimal participation in the Columbo Security Conclave (CSC). The recent signing of the Charter of the CSC, with India and Maldives as founding members, paves the way for closer cooperation to achieve “a safe, secure and peaceful Indian Ocean.”
Other sections of the above-cited document deal with financial and economic cooperation and India’s assurance to extend assistance in diverse areas such as health, energy, capacity, building, and digital cooperation. The Maldives side was particularly pleased with New Delhi‘s decision to extend support in the form of $400 million and ₹30 billion as part of a bilateral currency swap agreement, which will help the nation deal with its current financial challenges. The two sides agreed to initiate discussions to conclude a bilateral Free Trade Agreement (FTA) focusing on trade in goods and services. Above all, people-to-people relations and political ties will be further strengthened through a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) between the two parliaments, which will promote tourism and open new consulates in Bengaluru and Addu. An innovative way to enhance the flow of Indian tourists to Maldives is to charm Bollywood moguls. President Muizzu spent some quality time interacting with film stars and directors in Mumbai on 8 October. Whether this move will succeed remains to be seen.
Other notable features of the visit were the launch of the RuPay Card in Maldives, the launch of an airport runway, the handing over of 700 social housing units built with Indian assistance, and the signing of five MOUs pertaining to specific areas of cooperation.
President Muizzu revealed that after briefing PM Modi about Maldives’ 20-year national development plan, he requested India’s support to achieve the target of Maldives becoming a developed country by 2040. PM Modi assured him of India’s support.
The Muizzu government’s India policy took several months to reach the present positive stage. This change is attributable to at least four factors.
One, internal dynamics should be factored in. India has amassed considerable goodwill and political capital within the country through extensive cooperation stretching to several decades. This was reflected in the pro-India constituency – and the people at large – exerting sufficient pressure on the government to seek a meaningful reconciliation with New Delhi.
Two, expectations from China may not have been met sufficiently because the distance – and not just in geographic terms – really matters.
Three, India’s patient and pragmatic handling of the relationship in recent months and its studied refusal to respond to provocations by Maldives officials were noteworthy. Besides the PM’s guidance, the leadership of the Ministry of External Affairs and the quiet but effective work done by our High Commission in Male deserve full credit for this achievement.
Finally, friendly advice and suggestions from India’s Quad partners – the US, Japan, and Australia – seem to have convinced Maldives that diversified cooperation rather than overdependence on a single partner is the best way to protect and promote its interests.
A new chapter has opened in India-Maldives relations. The visit should enable the bilateral relationship “to scale new heights.” But much work awaits the concerned officials and diplomats, with the Muizzu-Modi parleys “building on the strong and extensive foundation of relations and charting out new frontiers for engagement,” as Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri put it. Maldives is a small country, but also an important strategic partner for India. It deserves more sustained attention from the Indian polity.
To begin with, Indian media outlets need to cover developments in that country on a more regular basis. The country’s think tank community too must develop deeper expertise about Maldives and what drives its policy in social, psychological, economic, political and strategic terms. Interested think tanks can start their work immediately by analyzing and assessing the Muizzu visit from bilateral and regional perspectives and the new vision document.
Prime Minister Modi’s likely visit to Maldives in 2025 will be the next major milestone in this developing story.
Rajiv Bhatia is Distinguished Fellow, Foreign Policy Studies, Gateway House, and a former ambassador.
This article was first published by WION.