Prime Minister Netanyahu’s political reformation is complete. Reviled for allowing October 7 to happen on his watch, over the last one year the veteran Israeli politician has fought critics to not only cement his place as Israel’s leader but also to extoll his vision for a reshaped Middle East. In a speech at the United Nations in September, he made this vision clear when he held up two maps – one depicting Israel with Saudi Arabia and Jordan as “the blessing” and the other showcasing Iran, Iraq and Syria as “the curse.” Elaborating on this theme Netanyahu said that the time had come for a “historic peace with Saudi Arabia”[1] that would “enhance the prospects of peace with the Palestinians.”[2]
Netanyahu’s ‘Arab outreach’ was not unexpected as plans for normalisation of ties between Riyadh and Tel Aviv had already begun under the Donald Trump presidency. However, the fact that the Israeli leader felt confident enough to state his vision on a global platform, showed how much his fortunes had changed. This confidence was not evident prior to October 7, when a poll showed only 18% of Israelis wanted him to continue as Prime Minister,[3] and it was not there just after the Oct 7 attacks. Today is a different story. While anti-Netanyahu protests continue, both his admirers and critics acknowledge he is now firmly in place.
The central reason for his survival was his successful management of the domestic political scene when he persuaded political rival Benny Gantz to be part of the National Unity (NU) emergency government. A retired general and respected politician, Gantz made it clear in a statement that normal politics was on hold when he stated that “ours is not a political partnership but a shared fate.”[4]
Gantz’s words lent legitimacy to the emergency government and blunted the attack of Netanyahu’s political rival Yair Lapid who refused to join it. While Gantz joined the coalition as chairman of the NU, he demanded certain aims be fulfilled, chief among them being the release of the hostages and a plan for a post-war Gaza. However, tensions soon grew between the two leaders with Gantz accusing Netanyahu of being unserious about following these war aims, and he withdrew from the government on June 9 this year. His exit gave Netanyahu a free hand to shape the war effort in the way he wanted.
Netanyahu’s second success was managing the U.S. Concerns about his unwillingness to negotiate a ceasefire began to grow within the Democratic Party in March this year. U.S. Senator Chuck Schumer lent his voice to these concerns when he made a speech on the Senate floor in Capitol Hill in Washington on March 14, when he stated that the Israeli Prime Minister had “lost his way by allowing his political survival to take precedence over the best interests of Israel.”[5] Schumer’s was not the only voice of unease. President Biden also stated his support for an end to the war, calling for a “six-week ceasefire that would get all the hostages home.” [6]
Netanyahu viewed any ceasefire as being a catalyst for questions over his lack of leadership for Oct 7. He manoeuvred to hold a private meeting with Republicans shortly after Schumer’s address after which the Republicans came down on Democrats for being “isolationist” and “anti-Israel.”[7] Shortly thereafter in April, Netanyahu then authorised the bombing of the Iranian consulate in Damascus. This then prompted an Iranian retaliation, halting the ceasefire talks.
Netanyahu’s choosing violence to ensure his political survival comes as no surprise to those who have studied his leadership strategies over the years. But he does now face problems. After the killing of Hamas and Hezbollah leaders, Israelis will expect Netanyahu to bring the hostages home and get the settlers back into their homes in northern Israel. It is not clear how he will achieve this.
True to pattern, the Israeli prime minister has again sought to double down on retaliatory attacks against Lebanon and Iran. However, he may have less luck this time. Families of the hostages disrupted his speech on Oct 27[8] showing that despite his recent successes, Netanyahu remains vulnerable. The prime minister has managed to ignore such criticism in the past, and has, for the third time, doubled down on his strategy at the opening of the Knesset on Oct 28. He has promised the hostages that they will be brought home but has also turned the war in a long term direction, with the goal of “dismantling the Evil Axis” and preventing a nuclear Iran.
A war of words and differences has now broken out openly between Netanyahu and his Defence Minister Yoav Gallant. Gallant signalled divergent views from Netanyahu when he tweeted that “painful compromises”[9] are required to bring the hostages home. The statement contrasts with Netanyahu’s war aims and these differences will only increase in the Knesset’s winter session.
Netanyahu’s political calculus may now face challenges. He is hoping the strikes against Tehran will prompt a retaliation from Iran, prompting the U.S. to enter the battle on the side of Israel.
If that happens, and Iran is indeed threatened, he would be the Israeli leader who made it possible. It is a calculated risk, but Netanyahu’s risks have worked for him in the past and he may manage it again. Even if it has dangerous implications for the region.
Ashwin Ahmed is a senior journalist and academic.
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References
[1] Full text of Netanyahu’s UN address: ‘Enough is enough’, he says of Hezbollah, also warns Iran, Times of Israel, September 27, 2024, https://www.timesofisrael.com/full-text-of-netanyahus-un-speech-enough-is-enough-he-says-of-hezbollah-also-warns-iran/
[2] Full text of Netanyahu’s UN address: ‘Enough is enough’, he says of Hezbollah, also warns Iran, Times of Israel, September 27, 2024, https://www.timesofisrael.com/full-text-of-netanyahus-un-speech-enough-is-enough-he-says-of-hezbollah-also-warns-iran/
[3] Anat Peled, Most Israelis Want Netanyahu to go, Wall Street Journal, November 4, 2023 https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/israel-hamas-war-gaza-strip-2023-11-04/card/most-israelis-want-netanyahu-to-go-poll-shows-IQsE1tgo2akBSA2syvoX
[4] Prime Minister’s Office. Joint Statement by PM Netanyahu and National Unity Chairman MK Gantz, Government of Israel, November10, 2023 https://www.gov.il/en/pages/spoke-joint111023
[5] Full text of Senator Chuck Schumer’s speech: ‘Israeli elections are the only way’, Times of Israel, March 15, 2024 https://www.timesofisrael.com/full-text-of-senator-chuck-schumers-speech-israeli-elections-are-the-only-way/
[6] The Only Solution Is A Two-State Solution, US Department of State, March 11, 2024 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2M8t65e5WMo
[7] Liz Goodwin et al. Republicans hug Netanyahu tighter as Democratic tensions with Israel war strategy boil, Washington Post, March 20, 2024 https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/03/20/
netanyahu-republican-senate-meeting/
[8] Netanyahu heckled by bereaved relatives at Oct. 7 memorial ceremony: ‘Shame on you!’, Times of Israel, October 27, 2024 https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/netanyahu-heckled-by-bereaved-relatives-at-oct-7-memorial-ceremony-shame-on-you/
[9] Yoav Gallant Tweet on X October 27, 2024 10:19 PM https://x.com/yoavgallant/status/1850580567420461424