Subcontinental upheaval - Gateway House

This is the second in a two-part series. Listen to part one here.

Transcript

Manjeet Kripalani: What do you think about the subcontinental upheaval which has been taking place in our region? What did we miss, and what were the signs?

Ambassador Rajiv Bhatia: I think it was indeed, as you said, a major upheaval or a milestone of an event, this ouster of Sheikh Hasina. But we must remember that in its 52-year-old history as an independent nation, it has seen the short rule by the founder of the nation, Mujibur Rahman, the long army rule by the BNP government, and, of course, Hasina’s rule which lasted for about 20 years in 2 spells. Naturally, it is the end of an era. It is the opening of a new chapter. We know now that the old age is over. We don’t know how the new age will open but it does have serious implications for the politics, economy and overall situation of Bangladesh. This will affect not just Bangladesh. It is obviously very significant for South Asia. But I think I would even go beyond and say that it has global implications, and therefore it’s very important for us to examine the upheaval in its full gravity.

MK: Was India expecting this? Did we see it and try to engage with this?

RB: When we say India, we have to specify what we mean by it. Obviously, much of the observer community was taken by surprise. I’m sure many officials who have been handling Bangladesh may not have been entirely surprised. There are two factors here that we have to keep in mind. One is the immediate factor, which we all know is related to the quota or reservation issue. That probably was not the real reason. I think that was used for certain, obvious political purposes. Once the cauldron began boiling, the political forces hostile to Sheikh Hasina came into full form and used it fully in order to unseat her. But the second factor is very important, and this is what I would like to stress, and it is that Bangladesh has shown that it is a very complex and difficult nation to govern. This is because of the fundamental Shi’ism the polity has always experienced between those who favour an Islamic nation, and those who favour an inclusive, secular nation. This began from the very beginning of the nationhood in 1971 and in many ways, this problem still continues and will continue after Hasina ouster.

RB: What does this mean for India’s Neighbourhood First policy?

Most experts from India on Bangladesh are agreed that it is a setback to India’s vital interests. It is a setback to India’s Neighbourhood first policy. It is even a setback to India’s Act East policy, and in some ways even to the further development of BIMSTEC. A candid recognition of that fact is essential before we can try to find a pathway out of this impasse. Bangladesh was perhaps India’s closest friend and partner in the region, apart from Bhutan. India did not object to many things about Sheikh Hasina’s rule as it would have, and it hoped that she would continue to weather the storm. But you know, every government, finally comes to an end, and this is exactly what has happened now. So, we need to reconfigure the approach to Bangladesh, and this will entirely depend on what happens in Bangladesh itself. At the end of the day, it is the Bangladesh-centric developments that we are talking about.

MK: You mentioned BIMSTEC and its goals. We have a summit coming up this year. Bangladesh hosts the secretariat, and Thailand is going to be the host [of the summit]. How is this going to impact BIMSTEC? We already have a problem with SAARC because of Pakistan’s non-participation. Are we going to see something similar that will freeze BIMSTEC?

RB: To answer that question again, we have to focus on what is going to happen in Dhaka in the coming days. As we know, the Army is setting up an interim government. Clearly, this interim government may remain interim for several months, or at least until the elections, which may take place later in the year or next year. So once the interim government is formed and its policies are announced, only then we will be very clear about the prelude to the summit. However, as a student of subcontinental affairs, I think one can say that, considering it was not Awami League but other political forces that were responsible for the setting up of regional bodies like SAARC and perhaps even BIMSTEC, we can assume that BIMSTEC will survive this crisis. I think the central issue is who is going to be the interim leader, what would be his approach to regional cooperation and integration. Assuming that they are all working on the basis of prudence and common sense and correct history of the geography and economy of the country, they will come forward and support BIMSTEC. The BIMSTEC Business Summit is taking place in Delhi, so we will get some clues. In a fortnight or so, the situation should become clearer.

MK: There is much speculation about the many global and regional players involved in the ouster of Sheikh Hasina and the making of the new government. There are great powers, not-so-great powers and next-door neighbours. So, it is a complex, as you said, cauldron. How will this change the geopolitics of our region and what should India prepare for?

You have used a very correct formulation. You know, the geopolitical dynamics need to be understood fully. There is more speculation than evidence-based analysis at this stage. But I think even if we go beyond deciphering who did what, we can be fairly clear as to who is gaining from the departure of Sheik Hasina. It’s very clear that the U.S. probably feels happy and vindicated. Certainly, China would have reasons to celebrate. Certain fundamentalist forces in Saudi Arabia and, of course, Pakistan must be getting ready to exploit the new situation to their advantage. Here, I would essentially like to say that in terms of policy prescription or advice to New Delhi, and of course, they have many, many people to help them with all this, there is a particular reason for India to institute serious consultations with its Quad partners, that is the US, Japan and Australia. Unless and until we look at Bangladesh from the prism of the common shared China factor, we could run into even greater difficulties. This is one piece of advice which I would like to offer. It is unsolicited, but since we talk of geopolitics, it has to be seen beyond the region.

We are hearing of names of the possible leaders of the interim government. If the new leader or prime minister has to get some piece of advice from anyone, they should turn to Sri Lanka. Will the new leader be the Ranil Wickremesinghe of Bangladesh, or will he first go the way of the President of Maldives, Mohammed Muizzu, and then rebalance and learn from his own experience? That is the central question that we have to decipher in Bangladesh.

Rajiv Bhatia is the Distinguished Fellow for Foreign Policy Studies at Gateway House, and a former ambassador.

Manjeet Kripalani is Executive Director, Gateway House.

Podcast produced by Charuta Ghadyalpatil.

This podcast was exclusively recorded for Gateway House: Indian Council on Global Relations. You can explore more exclusive content here.

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