Prime Minister Narendra Modi will have a virtual Summit with the Heads of the five Central Asian countries on January 27. The Presidents of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan were invited as guests for the Republic Day in India. However, in view of the current COVID situation, the Republic Day celebrations will have no foreign guests for the second consecutive year.
The virtual summit marks 30 years of the establishment of diplomatic relations with the Central Asian countries and is an important step in the quest for greater engagement and connectivity between India and Central Asia. This first-ever summit with Central Asian leaders will discuss steps to take bilateral relations forward significantly, and exchange views on the evolving regional security situation.
The momentum generated by the 2015 visit of Prime Minister Narendra Modi to all Central Asian countries resulted in the initiation of the India-Central Asia Dialogues -with participation of Afghanistan – at the level of Foreign Ministers, and enhanced engagement in all areas. This has coincided with the resurgence of Central Asia’s importance in trade and transport in the region.
Security and Afghanistan are of immediate concern. India and Central Asian countries have similarity of views on most geopolitical issues, including Afghanistan, with which Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan share a border. They have a shared interest in ensuring that Afghan territory is not used for sheltering, training or financing terrorists. Over the past six years they have enhanced relations in strategic areas including defence, security, counter terrorism, intelligence-sharing. This will further deepen as India and Central Asia seek to limit any adverse fallout of the developments in Afghanistan.
The regional security dialogue hosted by India in November 2021, with participation of heads/secretaries of National Security Councils of the Central Asian countries along with Russia and Iran, also outlined a common regional approach on Afghanistan. They reiterated their support for a peaceful, secure and stable Afghanistan, and agreed to provide immediate humanitarian assistance to the Afghan people.
Beyond Afghanistan, is the necessity for India and Central Asia to seriously enhance the economic agenda, bilaterally and regionally, as those countries step out of their geopolitical bubble and increase in strategic importance. Some efforts are being made. Recent years have seen a growing Indian presence in Central Asia especially in the healthcare and education sectors. Several Indian universities now have campuses in Central Asia and there are about 10,000 Indian students in Central Asia. Over the past few years, Indian states have made direct contacts with their counterparts in Central Asia. Particularly noteworthy is the collaboration between Gujarat and Andijon in Uzbekistan in pharmaceuticals, education, agriculture, IT, and other areas. President Shavkat Mirziyoyev of Uzbekistan attended the Vibrant Gujarat Summit in 2019. Chief Minister Vijay Rupani of Gujarat reciprocated later in 2019, participating in the India-Uzbekistan regional investment forum in Andijon.
In 2021, India announced a $1 billion line of credit for infrastructure development projects in Central Asian countries, and grants for High Impact Community Development Projects for socio-economic development. Discussions on identifying and implementing specific projects, are on-going.
Trade between India and Central Asia has been languishing at $2 billion, pegged mostly on import of crude oil and uranium from Kazakhstan and export of pharmaceuticals to the region. This must broaden into contemporary economic exchanges, especially as India an established global technology and emerging e-commerce player, has much to offer. The forthcoming meeting of the India-Central Asia Business Council in Tashkent will be looking for ways to enhance and diversify trade and investment.
Some of the dormant connectivity projects are seeing signs of life. The Central Asian region has abundant natural gas resources. The proposed Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) pipeline project is a winning proposal for all participating countries. The Taliban government in Afghanistan and Turkmenistan have been in discussions, and on 16 January at a meeting in Turkmenistan they announced the project will recommence in Afghanistan in March 2022. The pipeline aims to bring 33 billion cubic meters of gas from Turkmenistan to India.
With TAPI back on the table, it is time to progress another connectivity initiative – the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC) and the Ashgabat Agreement on International Transport and Transit Corridor. India, Iran and Uzbekistan have long been discussing joint use of the Chabahar Port in Iran. Given Pakistan’s intransigence, overland connectivity through Pakistan remains an unlikely possibility. The key then, lies in trade through the maritime and rail routes via Iranian ports.
Trade routes are determined by cost and time factors and are nearly immune to political considerations. The trading community in India and other countries has to be convinced of the attractiveness of the INSTC compared with other available options. Dry runs along INSTC between India and Azerbaijan/Iran conducted in 2014 demonstrated cost and time savings. The transit time for a test shipment of a block train from Finland to India in 2021 took 18 days instead of the expected 22 days. It may be worthwhile considering a test shipment to India from Kazakhstan, India’s biggest trade partner in Central Asia. Currently, much of the bilateral trade between the two countries is via China. There is a need to complete the missing rail links on the INSTC, which will reduce costs and address the problem of congestion at road border crossing points.
Russia still retains a major influence in Central Asia, bilaterally and through regional mechanisms involving all or some of those countries, such as the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), CIS Free Trade Area, Eurasian Economic Union, and the Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO). In December 2021, India and Russia exchanged a ‘non paper’ on increasing engagement in Central Asia. Defence is among the identified areas for cooperation, and India can potentially supply parts for Russian defence equipment to Central Asia. Russia too has an interest in ensuring the security of the Central Asian borders with Afghanistan and Tajikistan in particular and working against the possible influx of terrorism and extremism into Central Asia. Russia is also a partner country in the INSTC. As India and Russia have similar interests, a framework for cooperation among India, Russia and Central Asian countries can be developed. Aligning with Russian engagement in Central Asia will benefit India in the long run.
In the meantime, India can press ahead with its own economic interest in the region. Cooperation in renewable energy, including through the International Solar Alliance, and participation of the Central Asian countries in the Coalition for Disaster Resilient Infrastructure (CDRI), is a winning proposition. Science and technology, agriculture and food processing, space applications, information technology, uranium (from Uzbekistan) – there is considerable scope for bilateral collaboration in these emerging areas.
The January 27 summit holds promise for an ambitious agenda, one which will be a quantum leap forward in India’s relationship with the Central Asian neighbourhood and for peace and security in the region.
Vinod Kumar is the former Indian ambassador to Uzbekistan.
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