On April 6, Eurosceptics claimed an important victory when Dutch voters rejected the European Union’s Association Agreement with Ukraine in a referendum[1]. The agreement would have established a free trade area between the two sides and is seen as a first step towards EU membership for Ukraine.
The vote was probably based on concerns among a section of the Dutch electorate about establishing closer ties with conflict-torn Ukraine. But observers suggest that the referendum was mainly an opportunity for Dutch voters to express discontent with the EU and with the current Dutch government.
This has put both the Dutch government and EU leaders in a difficult position: while Prime Minister Mark Rutte has said that his government will not be able to ratify the Association Agreement, the European Commission is likely to put forward a proposal for visa-free travel between the EU and Ukraine this month despite the referendum result[2].
By doing this, will EU leaders be ignoring their citizens’ democratically expressed wishes? It may appear so at first glance, but the reality is slightly more complex.
First, the referendum is non-binding under Dutch law[3]—the government is obliged to consider the result but does not have to abide by it. Second, and perhaps more importantly, the legitimacy of the referendum itself has been called into question. The Dutch government was forced to hold the referendum because a satirical Dutch website, GeenStijl, organised a petition that collected more than 440,000 signatures—enough to trigger a referendum[4].
The other prominent organiser of the referendum is the far-right anti-immigrant Freedom Party, whose leader Geert Wilders has described Moroccans as “scum” and is currently being tried for inciting hatred[5].
There are reports that many Dutch voters boycotted the referendum[6] so as not to lend legitimacy to the controversial organisers, hoping that the turn-out would fall below the required 30% and therefore be invalid.
In the end, just under 33% of the electorate voted, barely meeting the required threshold. The low voter turn-out means only approximately 21% of the Dutch electorate voted against the Association Agreement[7]. This raises doubts about the significance of the results as a measure of popular opinion on the issue.
Nevertheless, it is clear that referendums can pose a challenge to the usual, top-down model of governance at the EU level, which heavily relies on the directions of the unelected European Commission and on traditional agreements between national governments.
The European Parliament though is directly elected by EU citizens and its role has become much stronger over the years. But the low voter turn-out for its elections undermines the democratic legitimacy it is supposed to bring to the EU[8]. Voters view referendums as a more direct way of influencing policy-making than European Parliament elections, in which party affiliation and delegates’ personalities tend to trump policies on specific issues.
Amid the growing Euroscepticism and economic uncertainties, it is not surprising that European citizens use referendums to assert and communicate their opinions to both their national governments and EU institutions. “In Europe, we are on a slippery path,” Martin Schulz, president of the European Parliament, said in a recent interview, referring to the rise of Eurosceptic sentiment in the last few years. The “Brexit” referendum on the UK’s continued membership of the EU, which will be held in June , is a potent example of the high stakes involved[9]. A potential exit by the UK can threaten the integrity of the EU itself.
Referendums are likely to particularly impact issues where popular opinion differs from the stance taken by national governments within the EU—such as free trade agreements, which have typically been negotiated in secret among government officials. For example, Dutch voters are currently pushing for a referendum on the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership between the EU and the U.S[10].
The April 6 Dutch referendum on the Association Agreement is a sharp reminder of the popular resentment against this type of politics and policy-making. It is also a vote against the EU’s continuing failure to meet the standards of democratic legitimacy that its citizens demand.
Does this mean more EU member states should hold national referendums on important EU policies in order to promote the union’s democratic legitimacy? Not necessarily. It is important to remember that even if it had attracted a higher turn-out, the referendum in the Netherlands on the treaty with Ukraine would still only represent the opinions of 16.8 million Dutch citizens, or around 3% of the total population of the EU.
In a political union, a small percentage of the population should not be able to veto policy—this would be akin to the residents of Berlin being able to stop the German government from setting policies for the entire country. The EU has come close to dangerous situations like this in the past: in October 2011, for example, a single party in the Slovak parliament, the Freedom and Solidarity Party, threatened (but failed) to unilaterally derail the union’s rescue fund during the Eurozone crisis[11].
Instead of individual member states being able to stall EU decision-making through a national referendum, EU-wide referendums can be introduced on major changes to the EU’s membership and organising principles. This will give European citizens a greater voice in EU policy-making, while still maintaining the principles of a political union.
Katharina Obermeier is a Research Officer at the Global Economic Governance Programme in Oxford.
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References
[1] Gotev, Georgi, Dutch voters reject EU-Ukraine association, EurActiv, 7 April 2016, <http://www.euractiv.com/section/global-europe/news/dutch-voters-reject-eu-ukraines-association/>
[2] Press Release, European Commission, European Commission proposes visa-free travel for citizens of Ukraine, 20 April 2016, <http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_IP-16-1490_en.htm>
[3] Advisory Referendum Act in force, 22 July 2015, <https://www.kiesraad.nl/en/news/advisory-referendum-act-force>
http://wetten.overheid.nl/BWBR0036443/2015-07-01
[4] Escritt, Thomas, ‘Dutch website says it will trigger referendum on EU-Ukraine ties’, Reuters, 27 September 2015, <http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-ukraine-crisis-dutch-referendum-idUKKCN0RR0U320150927>
[5] ‘Dutch far-right leader Geert Wilders goes on trial for inciting hatred’, The Guardian, 18 March 2016, <http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/mar/18/dutch-far-right-leader-geert-wilders-goeson-trial-for-inciting-hatred>
[6] Stevens, Tom, et al.”Politicians have lost our trust': readers on the Dutch referendum’ The Guardian, 13 April 2016, <http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/apr/13/politicians-trust-readers-dutch-referendum-ukraine-association-treaty>
[7] News, Kiesraad, Results of the referendum on the Association Agreement with the Ukraine, 12 April 2016, <https://www.kiesraad.nl/en/news/results-referendum-association-agreement-ukraine>
[8] ‘It’s official: Last EU election had lowest-ever turnout’, EurActiv, 11 April, 2016,<http://www.euractiv.com/section/eu-elections-2014/news/it-s-official-last-eu-election-had-lowest-ever-turnout/>
[9] Brady, Kate, ‘European Parliament President Schulz warns of ‘implosion of EU’, Deutsche Welle, 12 April 2016, <http://www.dw.com/en/european-parliament-president-schulz-warns-of-implosion-of-eu/a-19179812>
[10] Home, TTIP CETA referendum, <https://ttip-referendum.nl/>
[11] ‘Eurozone crisis: Slovakia backs larger rescue fund’, BBC News, 13 October 2011, <http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-15297453>