The great Asian power muddle may not become clear for some time but as China, Japan and the United States wage a war of words, it is imperative for India to stay ahead of the game and find the right spot from where to enter the arena.
At the recently concluded Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore – Asia’s most important gathering of military and government officials – simmering tensions between China and Japan, and between China and the U.S., came bursting to the fore. Japan’s Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and U.S. Defence Secretary Chuck Hagel accused Beijing of using “force and coercion” against its smaller neighbors.
The dust-up in Singapore has implications for India’s new government as it feels its way through the concentric circles of immediate neighbors, close neighbors and distant friends.
Asia is where the old order is rubbing against the new and India is in the middle of it – literally. The U.S. “rebalance” toward Asia to maintain its supremacy, and Japan’s reincarnation under Abe as a nation eager to speak up, are clashing with a militarily aggressive China.
The tussle will throw up new security dilemmas for India.
Both Abe and Hagel mentioned Prime Minister Narendra Modi as an important partner in their effort to maintain a rule-based system and freedom of navigation in the Indo-Pacific region. Hagel explicitly welcomed “India’s growing defense capabilities” in his speech, something that will surely be noticed in Beijing and Islamabad.
The coordinated pushback against China by the U.S. and Japan was designed to give confidence to countries like Vietnam and the Philippines who routinely face Chinese naval aggression.
Hagel listed some of them – “China has undertaken destabilising, unilateral actions asserting its claims in the South China Sea. It has restricted access to Scarborough Reef, put pressure on the long-standing Philippine presence at the Second Thomas Shoal, begun land reclamation activities at multiple locations, and moved an oil rig into disputed waters near the Paracel Islands.”
The U.S. does not take a position on territorial claims but Hagel stressed, “We firmly oppose any nation’s use of intimidation, coercion, or the threat of force to assert those claims. The U.S. will not look the other way when fundamental principles of the international order are being challenged.”
The Chinese representative Lt. Gen. Wang Guanzhong, deputy chief of the Peoples’ Liberation Army, was so incensed that he went extempore and blasted Hagel for being “full of hegemony,” and adopting an “unconstructive attitude” which could usher in destabilising forces. He claimed that China had “never provoked” anyone and acted with restraint in response to provocation.
It’s another matter that other countries don’t agree with Chinese claims over 90% of the South China Sea and its fanciful “9-dash line” map which it uses to establish claims dating back to 2,000 years. Just imagine what Italy could claim based on the boundaries of the Roman Empire.
On his part Abe announced Japan’s desire to play a bigger security role, and offered “utmost support” to south east Asian countries struggling to protect their seas and airspace against Chinese provocations.
The strong words were meant to rally countries to their side and boost their flagging confidence. And send a signal to China that there is a counterweight to its growing muscle. Since India has its own territorial dispute with China, the Chinese tactics are not unfamiliar.
Calculate into the mix deteriorating relations between Russia and the U.S. over the events in Ukraine, and Moscow’s comfort with Beijing. New Delhi would have also noticed that Russia has reportedly lifted its arms embargo against Pakistan with a proposal to sell Mi-35 attack helicopters.
The security environment is shifting, and not necessarily in India’s favor. With the U.S. troops departing from Afghanistan, India can expect a rise in Pakistan-supported terrorist attacks. The attack on the Indian Consulate in Herat hours before Modi was sworn in was just a warning shot.
India may eventually have to make choices because it cannot continue to be everything to everyone. However Modi’s representative at Shangri-La, Tarun Vijay, a member of the Parliamentary committee on external relations, tried to do just that. He attempted to cover all bases by saying India wanted to strengthen its relations with China, Japan and South Korea, while adding that economic growth at home was a top priority.
Those looking for a substantive Indian view on how it would like to help shape the new balance of power will have to wait a while.
China and Japan are currently on opposite sides of the security spectrum. The U.S. is trying to walk a fine line between them – reassuring Asian allies on the one hand and deterring China on the other. Some say it’s failing at both.
The U.S. asserted its status as the current hegemon by flying military planes through Beijing’s unilateral “Air Defence Identification Zone” (ADIZ) in the East China Sea. The ADIZ was a clever ploy by Beijing to aerially cover the Senkaku or Diaoyu islands claimed by both Japan and China.
But the U.S. largely kept quiet as China encircled and occupied the Scarborough Shoal claimed by the Philippines.
The many disputes have the potential to flare up and India should be prepared to navigate the uncertain future.
Seema Sirohi is a Washington-based analyst and a frequent contributor to Gateway House: Indian Council on Global Relations. Seema is also on Twitter, and her handle is @seemasirohi
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