Mediation has shaped diplomacy, from the Peace of Westfalia or the Congress of Vienna to the Taif Agreement or the Joint Trilateral Statement of Saudi Arabia, Iran and China. In the last decade, the Gulf states have emerged as pivotal actors in conflict resolution, leveraging economic strength, cultural acumen, and diplomatic neutrality. Their engagement in high-stakes negotiations reflects the shifting dynamics in an increasingly multipolar world and the redefinition of power structures. In this new order, “Either you are with us or against us” is a phrase that no longer belongs to geopolitical realities or conflict resolution developments.
Leaders who have worked with conflict know that each conflict is unique, shaped by its causes, duration, external support, and several other factors.[1] Peace processes are not immediate remedies but ongoing and complex endeavours. However, specific lessons can be identified and are worth analyzing.
After a decade of direct conflicts between Ukraine and Russia since the Russian occupation of Crimea in 2014, a fresh round of talks began in Riyadh on February 28, 2025. Only two corners of the room were occupied. High-level delegations from Russia and the U.S. discussed various issues, including prospects for normalising bilateral relations and the war in Ukraine.[2] This event represents a milestone in finding an emergency exit from a labyrinth that has shaped international security understanding, including the conflict in Ukraine and the global domino effect of the geopolitical rivalry between the U.S. and Russia.
Meanwhile, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky visited the White House and held talks with a biagreement,delegation from the U.S. Senate.[3] Afterwards, the U.S. Department of State announced a round of talks with Ukrainian counterparts in Jeddah on March 10-12.[4] There, representatives of the U.S. and Ukraine agreed to enact an interim 30-day ceasefire, which can be extended by mutual agreement and which is subject to acceptance and concurrent implementation by Russia.[5]
Certainly, the absence of Ukraine in the first round decreases expectations of the outcomes, reminiscent of the time in 2023 when Russia did not attend the two-day National Security Advisors in Jeddah.[6] Effective mediation necessitates a balanced approach that considers all parties’ perspectives—much as the Camp David Accords, the Oslo Accords or the Good Friday Agreement. Even so, the rounds in the Kingdom have been pragmatic and parties have demonstrated will to reach an agreement.
The talks in Riyadh and Jeddah are simultaneously a messenger and a message. Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States have strategically positioned themselves as neutral players, leveraging strong relations with the great powers, including the U.S., Russia, China, and Europe. Some examples include several mediations regarding prisoner exchanges between Ukraine and Russia brokered by Saudi Arabia or the United Arab Emirates, as well as the Jeddah Declaration of Commitment to Protect the Civilians of Sudan.[7] The ongoing talks in Riyadh are not isolated events but part of a chronology that is keeping up its pace. Multipolarity is a trend, diplomacy is its mirror, and the Middle East is now at the heart of it.
Qatar’s role as host of the U.S.-Taliban negotiations in Doha[8] and mediator between Israel and Hamas,[9] Oman’s discreet diplomacy in facilitating discussions between the U.S and Iran that led to the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, and the UAE’s contributions to the Ethiopia-Eritrea peace agreement in 2018,[10] as well as its hosting of the COP28 summit in Dubai,[11] exemplify the diverse and strategic diplomatic engagements of Gulf states. These efforts highlight the region’s growing influence as a bridge for dialogue. Just as Middle Eastern literature, as The Assemblies of al-Hariri, weaves intricate narratives of resilience and negotiation, the region’s diplomacy reflects a complex evolution where alliances shift, and history is rewritten.
The diplomatic leverage can be explained by the neutral stance of Saudi Arabia and other Gulf countries since the outbreak of the two recent wars. Even when Saudi Arabia consistently voted against the Russian invasion of Ukraine at the United Nations General Assembly[12] and contributed more than $400 million in aid to Ukraine,[13] a diplomatic balance was built, maintaining early ties and dialogues with Russia through the OPEC+ platform on energy security and trade, subjects that keep open communications channels and cooperation opportunities. The wars also offered a new way for the aspirations of third countries to become visible as actors capable of mediating international conflicts and the impassé of UNSC resolutions or the vacuum of influence in country desks in New York, Olso, Geneva, Vienna or Paris.
Traditional mediation efforts rely on formal, structured, legalistic processes and sometimes with the military intervention of third parties as tools. In contrast, contemporary mediation needs and uses more flexibility to adapt to fluid actors, intentions, and communication complexities – far from the standard carrot-and-stick negotiation manuals. Sometimes, decision-makers and diplomats forget conflicts are about people more than nations. The novel As Long as the Lemon Trees Grow[14] by Zoulfa Katouh reminds us that Syria is a country, but more essential than that, it is a home for many. Using this lens, the Gulf states’ approach to conflicts has been strategic and culturally sensitive to consensus-building. This understanding of mediation has reinforced the probability of success projection. In this realm, respect and confidentiality will always be the core principles of reputation, both challenged by an era filled with mass media and disinformation operations.
The humanitarian situation in Gaza, the normalisation of ties with Israel, peacemaking and peacebuilding efforts in Iraq, Lebanon, Sudan, Syria and Yemen and a reconfiguration of governance in Beirut and Damascus, are all pivotal issues for the Middle East. On this path do challenges to diplomacy lie, as well as to reputation-building for mediation and conflict resolution. First are the mediation efforts that are guided by self-interest, particularly in scenarios where ties with one of the conflicting parties are significant. Second, given the complex regional web and an environment full of actors inside a competitive dynamic, mediation initiatives could be seen as an extension of rivalries rather than impartial peacebuilding efforts. Third is maintaining national stability and regional proficiency to make joint decisions with a shared compass of regional security with a long-term perspective.
An oft-quoted Swahili proverb[15] says, “You cannot turn the wind, so turn the sail”. Turning the sail is now, more than ever, in the hands of each nation, particularly when strategic autonomy is the new setting for foreign policies in the Middle East and beyond.
Mauricio D. Aceves is an advisor for security and border issues at STRATOP Risk Consulting, a Mexican Council on Foreign Relations member, and an analyst on contemporary Middle East and Central Asia issues.
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References
[1] Blair, Tony, “Lessons from Northern Ireland’s peace”, Arab News, April 11, 2023. https://www.arabnews.com/node/2284971
[2] The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation, “Press release on Russia-US consultations”, MFA of the Russian Federation, February 28,2025. https://mid.ru/en/foreign_policy/news/1998279/?TSPD_101_R0=08765fb817ab20008134d96955b1c6389b54e7efcca80023a406fd8b70e717a3554401749a54699f08fe86ea1e14300045a30a46af6c5f86265b89abb472e4799a02f1780563ec76249a62e7a46736456acf312a645dfeb8905d22d849761670
[3] Volodymyr Zelenskyy / Володимир Зеленський, “An important visit to the United States. In Washington, I met with a bipartisan delegation from the U.S. Senate”, X, February 28, 2025. https://x.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1895510194550943828
[4] US Department of State, “Secretary Rubio’s Travel to Saudi Arabia and Canada”, Press Statement, US Department of State, March 09, 2025. https://www.state.gov/secretary-rubios-travel-to-saudi-arabia-and-canada/?utm_source=homepage&utm_medium=news_bar&utm_campaign=stravel
[5] US Department of State, “Joint Statement on the United States-Ukraine Meeting in Jeddah”, OFFICE OF THE SPOKESPERSON, US Department of Stat, March 11, 2025. (https://www.state.gov/joint-statement-on-the-united-states-ukraine-meeting-in-jeddah/)
[6] Government of Poland, “National Security Advisors’ Meeting for Ukraine in Jeddah”, Government of Poland, August 05, 2023. (https://www.gov.pl/web/saudiarabia/national-security-advisors-meeting-for-ukraine-in-jedda)h
[7] US Department of State, “Jeddah Declaration of Commitment to Protect the Civilians of Sudan”, Press Statement, US Department of State, MAY 11, 2023. (https://2021-2025.state.gov/jeddah-declaration-of-commitment-to-protect-the-civilians-of-sudan/)
[8] Permanent Mission of the State of Qatar to the United Nations, “Security Council Hails Qatar’s Role in US-Taliban Negotiations”, Permanent Mission of the State of Qatar to the United Nations, March 11, 2020. https://ny.mission.qa/en/media/news/detail/1442/04/16/security-council-hails-qatar’s-role-in-us-taliban-negotiations
[9] Economist Intelligence, “Qatar plays key role in Israel-Hamas ceasefire deal”, Economist Intelligence, January 31, 2025. (https://www.eiu.com/n/qatar-plays-key-role-in-israel-hamas-ceasefire-deal/)
[10] Hans-Ulrich Stauffer, “Ethiopia & Eritrea Peace Treaty and End of UN-Sanctions”, United Nations, 2028. https://ucdpged.uu.se/peaceagreements/fulltext/2018_12_Peace_Agreement.pdf
[11] United Nations, Climate Change, “UN Climate Change Conference – United Arab Emirates”. United Nations Climatic Change, December 2023, 2023. https://unfccc.int/cop28
[12] United Nations Meetings Coverage and Press Releases “With 143 Votes in Favour, 5 Against, General Assembly Adopts Resolution Condemning Russian Federation’s Annexation of Four Eastern Ukraine Regions”, ELEVENTH EMERGENCY SPECIAL SESSION, GA/12458, October 12, 2022. https://press.un.org/en/2022/ga12458.doc.htm
[13] The Embassy of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia in Washington DC, “HRH Crown Prince Announces $400 Million in Humanitarian Aid To Ukraine During Call with President Zelenskyy”, The Embassy of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia in Washington DC, october 15, 2022. https://www.saudiembassy.net/news/hrh-crown-prince-announces-400-million-humanitarian-aid-ukraine-during-call-president-zelenskyy
[14] Zoulfa Katouh, “As Long as the Lemon Trees Grow”, Amazon, 2022. https://www.amazon.com/As-Long-Lemon-Trees-Grow/dp/0316351377
[15]Kofi Anan, “Interventions, A Life in War and Peace”, 2012. https://www.kofiannanfoundation.org/publication/interventions-a-life-in-war-and-peace/