The timing of Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s remarks accusing Israel of “genocide”[1] at the Arab-Islamic summit, held in Riyadh on November 11 this year, was interesting. The statement which came in the wake of recent moves by Riyadh and Tehran to strengthen ties, suggested that Saudi Arabia was finally acceding to Iran’s request that Arab nations needed to take a more active role in the Gaza war.
Iran will not have been surprised by the prince’s remarks, given the recent strides the two regional rivals had made in their relationship. Saudi Arabia and Iranian security officials met on March 10, 2023, in Beijing to sign the Beijing Agreement[2] to restore ties that had been snapped since 2016. Brokered by China, the agreement saw the reopening of embassies and the restoration of a 2001 security cooperation agreement.
Saudi Arabia and Iran have been down this road before. The two countries enjoyed friendly ties right until the Islamic Revolution of 1979. Relations deteriorated and were restored when Iran’s reformist president Mohammed Khatami came to power in 1997. Under Khatami’s presidency, prominent agreements between Saudi Arabia and Iran were signed, such as the joint security agreement in 2001.
Another reason for the positivity in ties then was the U.S. The U.S. saw in Khatami a person with whom it could do business. This sentiment was voiced by former US Secretary of State Madeliene Albright who spoke warmly of Iran in a speech to the Asia Society in 1998. In her speech, she said that “as the wall of mistrust comes down, we can develop with the Islamic Republic, when it is ready, a roadmap leading to normal relations.”[3]
Albright’s remarks showed the Saudi-Iran détente would be welcomed by the U.S. But Khatami’s departure from the political scene in 2005 and rising Saudi concerns over Iran’s nuclear programme in 2008, dissolved the optimism which never truly recovered till 2023.
The impetus for restarting negotiations began when President Trump imposed “maximum pressure”[4] sanctions on Iran after he exited the JCPOA nuclear deal in 2018. Iran’s president Ebrahim Raisi reached out to Riyadh and steps towards restoring ties were taken.
Tehran has now again emphasised its closeness to Riyadh. Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister for Political Affairs Majid Takht Ravanchi recently stated the Islamic Republic and Saudi Arabia are “resolved to establish lasting peace and stability in the region.”[5] The remarks came after Elise Stephanik, Trump’s pick as the US ambassador to the UN, tweeted on Nov. 10 that Tehran should expect “a return to President Trump’s MAXIMUM PRESSURE campaign.”[6]
The Saudi Arabia-Iran relationship is in a new stage. The ongoing war in Gaza and Lebanon, and the dramatic takeover of Syria by terrorist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), have weakened Iran’s proxies considerably. The Trump administration’s “maximum pressure” policies are likely to hurt an already curtailed Iran. The U.S. and Israel believe Iran’s growing disadvantage will enable Saudi Arabia to normalise relations with Israel once the war is over. There is a hurdle, though. Saudi Arabia has not changed its official position that normalisation needs to take place alongside a “Palestinian state based on the 1967 borders with East Jerusalem as its capital.”[7] This has been rejected by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu who has refused to countenance the idea of a Palestinian state.
The Israeli and U.S. calculus is that the Kingdom will eventually come around. The template for normalisation has already been set with the Abraham Accords. This, along with the recent ceasefire in Lebanon between Israel and Hezbollah and one between Israel and Hamas which will come later, will cause the Kingdom to drop its demand for a Palestinian state. The Israelis believe Prince Mohammed wants to trade with Israel, which is ranked as one of the world’s leading start-up-nations.[8] Collaboration with Israeli innovation will help move his country away from its economic dependence on oil.
Such an analysis is flawed, because the role of the U.S. in the region has been diminished. When Trump imposed sanctions on Iran in his first term, the world was not as sharply divided as it is now. China will not give up its relationship with Iran and will probably defy more sanctions imposed on Tehran. External powers aside, member countries of the region have developed strong relationships with one another, independent of the U.S. Prince Mohammed will view this emerging autonomy as a useful counter to perceived American fickleness, and even impoliteness, in the relationship. Biden’s refusal to deal with him directly in the first year of his term, over accusations that he orchestrated the murder of U.S.-based Saudi dissident Jamal Khashoggi, will have been an insult that is not forgotten despite subsequent interactions with the U.S.
Irritation with the U.S. apart, even if Trump as U.S. President were to demand normalisation with Israel, Riyadh’s incentive to do is reduced due to its security cooperation with Iran. The U.S. will either be forced to make more bargains to keep Saudi Arabia as an ally or Trump may give up on the region altogether. Either way, Riyadh will stay in the driver’s seat.
Saudi Arabia’s rise should be closely observed. At a time of high geo-political tensions, the Kingdom can play a calming role as it mediates between the U.S., Israel, and Iran. Though Qatar has been playing this role, Saudi Arabia’s voice will carry greater clout as it is widely regarded by most Muslim nations as the leader of the Arab and Islamic world. Should it embrace this role fully and carry it out successfully, it will indicate a more stable and confident Middle East.
Some moves have already been made in this direction behind the scenes – and other Gulf countries are joining in. A UAE government press release stated both Riyadh and Abu Dhabi had on December 8, 2022 “mediated the successful release and exchange of two prisoners between the United States of America and the Russian Federation.”[9] Those two prisoners were American basketball player Brittney Griner and Russian arms dealer Viktor Bout. The high-profile nature of the cases suggested the level of trust both the U.S. and Russia placed in the Gulf nations.
The current goodwill that the kingdom carries will be even more important given the recent developments in Syria, which has detached that country from being an active ally of Tehran. Saudi Arabia can play an active diplomatic role to placate external actors – Iran, Turkey, Russia and the US – and more importantly to influence the volatile HTS which has taken over the Presidential palace in Damascus with claims that it will form the new government. There are grave doubts about HTS’s abilities, given its Al-Qaeda links and lack of governing experience. But this is precisely why the Kingdom must engage with it. Isolating HTS could worsen an already inflammable Middle East.
Saudi Arabia’s top-dog position in the region is not immediately evident, but there are signs that it may soon be. Saudi intervention could dissuade both Iran and Israel from climbing up the escalatory ladder. Israel so far has not reacted to the Saudi statement of “genocide,” suggesting that this is an achievable objective that could work to overall benefit in the long term.
Ashwin Ahmed is a senior journalist and academic.
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References
[1] Saudi Press Agency, ‘On behalf of the #Servant_of_the_Two_Holy_Halls.. His Highness #Prince_of_the_Covenant presides over and opens the works of the extraordinary #Arab_and_Islamic_Summit in Riyadh.’ Facebook, November 11, 2024 https://www.facebook.com/spagov/videos/1897356487423565/
[2] “Joint Statement Issued Following Discussions by Saudi, Iranian Foreign Ministers in Beijing,” https://www.spa.gov.sa/w1885065.
[3] Madeline K Albright, Secretary of State Madeleine K. Albright at the 1998 Asia Society Dinner, New York, Asia Society, June 17, 1998. https://ciaotest.cc.columbia.edu/conf/asoc_spch98/alm01.html
[4] US Department of State. “Maximum Pressure Campaign on Regime in Iran” November 4, 2019 https://2017-2021.state.gov/maximum-pressure-campaign-on-the-regime-in-iran/
[5] Islamic Republic News Agency. ‘Tehran, Riyadh determined to establish lasting peace, stability in region’ IRNA November 23, 2024 https://en.irna.ir/news/85667988/Tehran-Riyadh-determined-to-establish-lasting-peace-stability
[6] Stephanik, Elise (@RepStefanik) ‘The U.S. is ready for a return to President Trump’s MAXIMUM PRESSURE campaign against Iran. For too long, our enemies have been emboldened by the weakness of the Biden-Harris Administration. With President Trump in charge, Peace through Strength is back.’ Twitter, November 10, 2024. https://x.com/RepStefanik/status/1855415080646763001
[7] Saudi Press Agency, “Saudi Arabia’s Unwavering Commitment to the Palestinian Cause, Lebanon: A Chronicle of Steadfast Support” November 11, 2024 https://www.spa.gov.sa/en/N2204935
[8] Global Startup Ecosystem Ranking 2024 (Top 40) The Global Startup Ecosystem Report 2024, https://startupgenome.com/article/global-startup-ecosystem-ranking-2024-top-40
[9] Press Release. “Success of Joint Emirati-Saudi Mediation Regarding Release and Exchange of Prisoners between United States and Russian Federation,” UAE embassy in Washington D.C. December 8, 2022 https://www.uae-embassy.org/news/success-joint-emirati-saudi-mediation-regarding-release-and-exchange-prisoners-between-united