As an influential regional power, Africa’s largest economy, and a nation with an activist foreign policy, South Africa commands global attention. It will assume the G20 presidency later this year, hosting the summit in 2025. This explains why the recent elections for the provincial legislatures and the National Assembly – which will elect a new president – drew notice around the world.
On 29 May, South Africa went to the polls amidst widespread discontent against the African National Congress (ANC), the ruling party at the national level and in all provinces except one since 1994 when a new democratic and post-apartheid nation emerged. Opinion polls and political pundits predicted that the party would receive a serious setback, losing a clear majority (of over 50%) in the National Assembly, for the first time. This is exactly what has happened as nearly all votes were counted by 1 June. The formal declaration of the results by the Independent Election Commission (IEC) takes place shortly.
Optimists in the ANC including Cyril Ramaphosa, President of South Africa, hoped that their passionate appeal for another opportunity could be heeded by the people, still enamoured by the party’s stellar role in creating a ‘rainbow nation’ under the legendary leadership of Nelson Mandela. But 30 years down the line, the people, suffering from a diversity of economic hardships, unemployment, poverty, inequality, corruption, and crime, concluded that it was now time for a change. The ANC’s “entitlement of being the sole dominant party” was over, stressed a political leader.
What do the results of the elections, where the voter turnout was 59% portend for the nation and beyond?
The ANC won a clear majority in all previous elections for the National Assembly. It secured 62% of the total votes cast in 1994 when Mandela was elected as the president. In 2009, the party landed at the highest level – 77% of the votes cast, which saw Jacob Zuma succeed Thabo Mbeki as the president. In the last elections held in 2019, the Ramaphosa-led party came down to 66%. Now, in 2024, the ANC has hit its lowest level of national votes – 40.1%.
The next four parties in terms of political strength now are the Democratic Alliance (DA) at 21.51%; uMkhonto weSizwe Party (MKP) at 14.38%; Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) at 9.51%; and the Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP) at 3.8%. The DA, traditionally seen as the party of whites, has doubled its base among blacks and has the backing of whites, Indians and coloureds. The MKP is, in effect, led by former President Jacob Zuma whose rebellion against the ANC leadership became a major factor in the ANC’s humiliating performance. The EFF is led by Julius Malema, the 43-year-old dynamic leader whose expulsion from the ANC in 2012 put him on an independent path advocating a leftist ideology and greater state control over the economy.
Of the nine provinces of South Africa, the ANC has won comfortable majorities in five and is close to 50% in the province of Northern Cape. One province – Western Cape – will stay under the control of the DA. In two other provinces, the ANC faces serious hazards. In KwaZulu-Natal, Zuma’s MKP has emerged as the largest party with 45% and could form a non-ANC coalition government. In Gauteng, EFF has done well enough to claim a share of power by attempting a coalition with the ANC which secured only 34.7%.
South African domain experts consulted by this author have pointed to considerable uncertainty about the composition of the next national government. Informal discussions within the ANC and between it and the other political parties have already begun. The coming days will bring clarity as to which of the likely four scenarios, delineated below, may win substantive political consensus.
One, the ANC and the DA may consider forming a coalition government. Their combined strength will be a guarantee for stability. But in a country where racial divide remains a potent factor, the notion of ANC collaborating with ‘the party of whites’ may largely be unpalatable. The DA, however, seems willing to work with the ANC for it has everything to gain by sharing power. However, it will insist on various conditions and consulting the pre-election alliance of its partners, as indicated by the party leadership.
Two, the ANC and the EFF, together with a couple of smaller parties, could be partners in a coalition government. Malema has already indicated his interest in sharing power and becoming the next finance minister. An analyst argued that Malema “could potentially become a kingmaker or even deputy president.” But his leftist leanings will be a negative factor.
Three, ANC factions opposed to President Ramaphosa may be inclined to accept the support of Zuma’s MKP, but this is certain to be opposed strongly by the Ramaphosa camp. Some experts have been citing the possibility of the elevation of Deputy President Paul Mashatile as president, since he may be more acceptable to Zuma.
Four, there exists the possibility of a minority government formed by the ANC, with the outside support of DA and one or two other parties. This will require a formal pact that prescribes a set of agreed policies and distribution of prestigious positions like the speaker of the National Assembly and committee chairs to the DA and other parties.
The National Assembly is due to meet within 14 days after the declaration of the result.
In respect of the above-mentioned scenarios, the central actor will still be the ANC. Its leaders will need to stay united and choose a partner or partners through consensus. ANC Chair Gwede Mantashe said, “We can talk to anybody and everybody.”
Further, President Ramaphosa continues to be a pivotal actor in the tense political drama unfolding now. He has the public persona as Mandela’s mentee and enjoys personal popularity among a large section of South Africans as well as international visibility, even though they have expressed an obvious lack of confidence in his stewardship. The question is whether his personal traits and political acumen will help him overcome the party’s unpopularity, thus enabling him to remain at the helm. On the answer to this question will depend the range of changes that the next government may introduce in the nation’s social, economic and foreign policies. So, the big question is whether Ramaphosa will stay or call it a day.
IEC Chair Mosotho Moepya wisely advised the nation, “This is a moment to manage and manage well.”
At a press briefing earlier today, ANC Secretary General Fikile Mbalula stated that the party has heard the people’s message. It is committed to the formation of a government “that reflects the will of the people, that is stable, and that is able to govern effectively.” But he also conveyed ANC’s rejection of the demand by other parties for President Ramaphosa to step down as a condition for forming a coalition, terming it as “a no-go area.”
In sum, after the elections, political stakes have become higher, and the task of government formation has become more complex than South Africa experienced ever before. The suspense continues.
Rajiv Bhatia is Distinguished Fellow, Foreign Policy Studies, Gateway House and former High Commissioner to South Africa.
This article was first published by WION.