Stepping up the Myanmar bilateral

Myanmar’s President Htin Kyaw visit to India from 27-30 August is the first of its kind in over five decades. He is the highest ranking leader of a largely democratic nation, and the head of the National League for Democracy (NLD) government which assumed power in March 2016. That in itself is important. The fundamental question is this: will the visit lead to major strategic and economic gains for the India-Myanmar relationship?

The context and the timing of the visit are significant. Just two weeks ago, Myanmar’s State Counsellor and Foreign Minister Aung San Suu Kyi visited China. In mid-September, she will visit Washington as the guest of President Obama. In mid-October, she will come to India to participate in the BRICS-BIMSTEC Outreach Summit. Visits by Myanmar leaders to Japan as well as European and ASEAN capitals are likely in the coming months.

These visits clearly reflect Myanmar’s strategy to conduct a non-aligned and independent foreign policy, one of being friendly to all, and to project a balance in its external partnerships.

The domestic context is also relevant. On 31 August, the Myanmar government convened the Union Peace Conference, also known as the 21^st Century Panglong Conference, an attempt to resolve the complex ethnic question that has defied solution since Myanmar’s independence in 1948. The motivation for the foreign trips seems also to be to secure support of major neighbours and other international partners. UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon was a special guest at the opening session of the conference in Naypyitaw.

Being fully conscious of the unfolding changes in Myanmar and perhaps to counter the perception that New Delhi has been somewhat slow in cultivating ties with the new democratic leadership, India delivered an unambiguous message to President Htin Kyaw. “Myanmar is special to us,” PM Modi told him, adding that, “It holds a unique position in India’s neighbourhood.” As if to further remove any doubt, President Pranab Mukherjee said at the state banquet he hosted that Myanmar was “a key partner in our ‘Neighbourhood First’ and ‘Act East’ policy.” While India viewed Myanmar as its gateway to ASEAN, Myanmar saw India as its bridge to South Asia.

The visit covered the vista of a bilateral engagement: political, strategic and economic.

On major political issues, India was forthright in its support to Myanmar, especially to its fledgling democratic institutions, the initiative for national reconciliation and peace, and the ongoing economic and political reform process under difficult circumstances. New Delhi has offered to share India’s own experiences in evolving parliamentary rules, procedures and practices as well as managing Union-State/Region relations, allocation of powers and resources between the Union and States etc.; this was laid out in the joint statement signed on 29 August.

As in the past, agreement was also reached on countering terrorism and insurgent activity through joint cooperation, but history indicates that this is easier said than done. On security matters, the Myanmar army still has the final say. Whether it will extend more effective cooperation in India under a democratic dispensation remains to be seen.

A similar tension prevails on other issues between the previous military government and the democratic one led by Kyaw. In the joint statement released at this visit, Myanmar supports India’s “efforts” to become a permanent member in an expanded and reformed UN Security Council. This formulation is weaker compared with the more open support for India’s UNSC ‘Candidature’ promised by former Myanmar President Thein Sein, a retired general in a quasi-civilian government, during his October 2011 visit to New Delhi.

Economically, concrete progress was achieved. India’s development package for Myanmar is valued at over $2 billion now. The includes institution-building and connectivity projects. The flagship Kaladan Multi-Modal Transit Transport Project will partially be in operation by December 2016. Two MoUs were signed on the construction of bridges of the Trilateral Highway linking India, Myanmar and Thailand, to be completed by 2020. This, along with the road component of the Kaladan project which is to link Rakhine state to Mizoram, is long overdue.

But timely progress has been made on joint endeavours, like the construction of Myanmar Institute of Information Technology, the centre for agricultural research and education, the rice bio-park, and the upgradation of two children’s’ hospitals in Yangon and Sittwe. India has invited Myanmar to participate in the International Solar Alliance, a favourite project of the Modi government, which has 121 countries as prospective members. Myanmar’s acceptance of the invitation is awaited.

Bilateral trade has been growing, but frustratingly slowly for officials on both sides. At $2.052 billion in 2015-16, it is quite some distance away from the target of $3 billion by 2015. A 2012 Line of Credit worth $500 million was signed, but not fully utilized. With new interest in Myanmar from corporate majors such Tata, Birla, Mahindra, Avantha Group and a few Kolkata-based member-companies of the Bharat Chamber of Commerce, this can accelerate interest. Especially as the State Bank of India has finally received a commercial banking license in March.

A way to deepen the bilateral is by activating a proposal to establish an India-Myanmar Foundation, tasked with expanding people-to-people exchanges. A China-Myanmar Foundation is already underway; India should not be far behind.

President Htin Kyaw has set the stage for a new level of bilateral engagement. To concretise this, Indian leaders may have to await in-depth interactions with Suu Kyi who is now routinely portrayed by media as the de facto prime minister of Myanmar. More specifically, a well-prepared bilateral visit by Prime Minister Modi to Myanmar in the next six to nine months will add real substance and momentum to this vital, but underperforming, relationship.

Rajiv Bhatia is Distinguished Fellow, Foreign Policy Studies Programme, Gateway House, a former ambassador to Myanmar, and author of ‘India-Myanmar Relations: Changing contours’ (Routledge 2016).

This article was exclusively written for Gateway House: Indian Council on Global Relations. You can read more exclusive content here.

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