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At a time of high geo-political tensions, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia can play a calming role as it mediates between the U.S., Israel, and Iran. It is enabled by its own diplomacy, moving to strengthen ties with Iran, with the Gulf nations slowly coalescing on issues. For the first time, it is being done without the U.S. as interlocutor.
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Donald Trump has re-entered Washington with the backing of a solid political base, a redefined Republican Party, and a more seasoned presence on the international stage, including in the Middle East. Since his last imprint on that region in 2016, 2024 presents significant shifts: alliances redefined, regional power dynamics realigned, trade networks transformed, and urgent security challenges restructured. These changes demand strategic recalibration from all stakeholders.
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The Israel-Hezbollah war has become the dominant event in the Middle East. The Israeli army has entered southern Lebanon, and Israel’s air force is targeting selected Hezbollah strongholds in Beirut. The year-long Israel-Hamas war is now a regional conflict, with international actors from the Gulf monarchies to Iran, the U.S., Europe, and the UN, trying to influence the course of events towards a ceasefire.
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Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has secured his political survival since October 7 by managing his key constituencies – domestic and in the U.S. – and doubling down on his war strategy. Now he is making another calculated risk – to ensure a non-nuclear Iran, and thereby his continued political positioning.
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The May 31 ceasefire deal proposed by U.S. President Joe Biden is the best on offer for Hamas and Israel. Hamas has delayed its response to the deal, demanding Israeli withdrawal from Gaza first. This absolutist and maximalist position allows Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to conveniently evade his responsibility towards the U.S., a ceasefire deal, and his own people.
Courtesy: The Times of Israel
Grey zones have blurred the frontiers of conflict and peace worldwide, creating ambiguous wars of complex scenarios and labyrinths that have transformed strategic foresight and the international and national security landscape. In these arenas, multiple options are available, where regional powers' ascertainments converge with the poker game of political, diplomatic, economic, and military interests, as well as the operations of state and non-state actors.
Courtesy: ET Insights
The geopoliticisation of the Israel-Hamas war has given birth to a new era of ruthlessly pragmatic and overlapping interests of multiple powers and actors. This is visible in the region of Middle Eurasia, the centre of the ongoing rearrangement of the world order.
Courtesy: India Today
Former President Trump and incumbent President Biden have emerged as frontrunners in the ongoing U.S. primaries. While the former faces several legal hurdles, the latter has been criticised for his response to the crises in Israel and Ukraine and the strategic contest with China. Neelam Deo, co-founder, Gateway House, speaks with Purvi Patel, International Affairs Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations, about the electoral race, legal challenges to Trump's candidature, and what India can expect from another Trump presidency.
Courtesy: CivisDaily
The Oslo Accords’ two-state solution for Palestine-Israel, visualised Gaza and the West Bank as self-governing entities under the Palestinian Authority. That political hope existed in an expanding global economy led by the U.S. and secured by American armies, with the promise of capital flows and investments to develop Palestine on its way to statehood. All this changed in the 2000s, as both Israelis and Palestinians became significant regional actors.
Courtesy: The Indian Express
Hamas faces an existential crisis in Gaza now that the Israeli army has captured its military headquarters and operating tunnels in northern Gaza. So far Israel has successfully ignored international pressure to limit its ground operation. In between are the Gazans, caught within an ideology they don’t trust.