Taiwan changes the Indo-Pacific balance

A disturbing but plausible scenario could soon transpire in Asia, changing the balance of power in the Indo-Pacific and severely affecting Indian interests: a Chinese invasion of Taiwan.

In early October, Beijing seemingly rehearsed for an invasion of Taiwan, carrying out beach landings and assault drills[1] in the southern part of the Fujian province directly across the sea from Taiwan. Alongside this, it stepped up mass air force incursions into Taiwan’s airspace, flying around 150 sorties that breached the latter’s air defense identification zone (ADIZ). In fact, President Xi Jinping has linked Taiwan’s unification with China[2] to the task of “rejuvenation of the Chinese nation”, giving it a very high priority under his administration, and across its diplomatic spheres.

The notion of “peaceful reunification” of China with Taiwan has been a geopolitical fiction that brought a modicum of stability to cross-straits relations, as both governments agreed they should proceed towards this at some future date under an implicit “one country, two systems” model on offer from China. However, by imposing its national security law and exercising direct control in Hong Kong, Beijing has shredded any illusions about “one country, two systems” being at all sustainable. China’s assertive “wolf warrior” diplomacy in Asia is ratcheting up the pressure on Taiwan to accept Beijing’s rule, as is Beijing’s clear notification that force is now an option for achieving unification.

Should hostilities break out between China and Taiwan, it will be a David vs Goliath struggle. The Chinese armed forces count over two million active personnel against Taiwan’s 165,000[3]; 3,260 aircraft against Taiwan’s 739; 777 ships including two aircraft carriers against Taiwan’s 117; 79 submarines against Taiwan’s four. The commanders of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) have studied US “shock and awe” tactics in the Gulf War that dislodged Saddam Hussein in Iraq. They are likely to commence hostilities with a concentrated missile barrage designed to take out all of Taiwan’s military and command centers at once and to inflict heavy damage on the small island, thereby bludgeoning it into submission even as Chinese troops land.

Against such a ferocious attack Taiwanese resistance would at best buy time, unless the U.S. responds and mobilizes its allies as well. But given the precedent of Afghanistan, where the U.S. withdrew and effectively surrendered the country to the Taliban, will America prefer to stay out? America, after all, is in retrenchment mode and weary of foreign wars; and Beijing would make for a far more formidable enemy than the Taliban.

Which way will the U.S. play? In, and with Taiwan, for a number of reasons. Taiwan is not Afghanistan, and the U.S. has far more strategic and commercial interests at stake in the former. The Afghanistan exit, far from marking a general American withdrawal from world affairs, was undertaken precisely to execute a comprehensive pivot to Asia and the Indo-Pacific, where geopolitical rivalry with China is brewing and the U.S. needs to devote more resources. China’s testing of hypersonic missiles has prompted General Mark Milley, chairman of U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff, to describe the event as very close to a “Sputnik moment”[4] for America.

Losing Taiwan to China is, therefore, not an option for the U.S., whose enormous commercial and security interests will be threatened. Southeast Asian states will be unable to resist Beijing’s blandishments, and be reduced to the status of economic vassals of China, similar to that of ‘satellite’ states in the erstwhile Soviet bloc. India too would come under severe pressure from the China-Pakistan axis.

Meanwhile, Beijing would have broken through the ‘first island chain’ and become capable of projecting power into the western Pacific. It will have acquired a very rich province that supplies semiconductors to the world and currently holds its fifth largest stash of foreign exchange reserves[5]. The end of Taiwan would mark, effectively, the end of America’s ‘Asia pivot’ as well as a drastic decline in its global influence.

Washington is now alert. It has steadily elevated defence sales to Taiwan, and American troops are now on the island, training with Taiwanese soldiers[6]. The U.S. is also mobilizing its allies in the region: AUKUS, a security pact between Australia, the U.K. and U.S. has been announced, under which nuclear powered submarines will be provided to Australia. Japan’s ruling party has pledged to double the country’s defence allocation[7] from 1% to 2% of GDP.

How has India reacted? If Taiwan were to go under and much of Asia fall to Chinese hegemony India’s interests will be as threatened as much as America’s are, or perhaps even more – America is far away, but India stands on an emboldened China’s doorstep. India, with its weak economy and under-resourced military, can hardly go to Taiwan’s help if attacked – it is preoccupied with defending its own land borders.

At a recent conference co-hosted by Gateway House, Foreign Secretary Harsh Shringla stated, “Our External Affairs Minister has said that the ability of India and China to work together will determine the Asian century. For this, peace and tranquillity in the border areas is a sine qua non”. However, China’s “wolf warrior” posture has manifested on the LAC as well rendering “peace and tranquillity” elusive, and forcing India’s hand.

India’s options are both diplomatic and naval. India can take sides in the diplomatic contest currently underway. China is making a determined bid to isolate Taiwan through various means – it has cut off all contact with the Tsai Ing-wen government, stopped visits by Chinese tourists, stepped up pressure on international companies to make “Taiwan” an unmentionable word, and poached many of the country’s remaining diplomatic allies at the UN. But other nations, including many in central and eastern Europe[8], are deepening ties with Taiwan. U.S. Secretary of State Anthony Blinken has called for bringing Taipei back into the UN system[9] without breaching the “one-China” rule; India should back this effort and mobilize other nations in support of Taiwan as well. It can also enhance the potency of naval exercises such as Malabar by closely linking the combat systems electronics that tracks real-time information on Indian ships with those of other Quad navies, thereby improving their interoperability, as well as by inviting non-Quad nations such as France, Singapore or Indonesia to participate in Malabar.

New Delhi can also step up trade, cultural and other exchanges with Taipei, and conclude a free trade agreement with it. These will send a signal to Beijing, especially after India walked out of RCEP. But such exchanges with Taipei are also advantageous in their own right as India seeks foreign investment, semiconductor factories, supply chain and pandemic resilience.

To the extent that New Delhi can buttress diplomatic support for Taipei, Beijing will be all the more persuaded of intense diplomatic blowback from across the world, and may decide the cost of taking over Taiwan is not worth the trouble.

This will put India on the path of actively being a ‘leading power’ that has influence in Asia, diminishing the dominance of China.

Swagato Ganguly is Consulting Editor, The Times of India and Research Affiliate, Lakshmi Mittal South Asia Institute, Harvard University.

This article was exclusively written for Gateway House: Indian Council on Global Relations. You can read more exclusive content here.

For interview requests with the author, or for permission to republish, please contact outreach@gatewayhouse.in.

References:

[1] https://edition.cnn.com/2021/10/11/asia/china-taiwan-military-intl-hnk/index.html

[2] https://www.hindustantimes.com/world-news/complete-reunification-of-china-will-be-realised-president-jinping-101633805168891.html

[3] https://www.globalfirepower.com/countries-comparison-detail.php?form=form&country1=china&country2=taiwan&Submit=COMPARE

[4] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/10/27/us-general-china-missile-test-very-close-to-sputnik-moment

[5] https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/biz/archives/2021/10/06/2003765580

[6] https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/taiwan-president-confirms-us-troops-training-soldiers-island-cnn-2021-10-28/

[7] https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/with-an-eye-china-japans-ruling-party-makes-unprecedented-defence-spending-2021-10-13/