"The EU is learning from its mistakes"

Although the 21st century is regarded as the Asian Century, the successes of Asian economies coincide with rapid economic and political changes unfolding in the West, especially Europe. With the European Union (EU) facing internal strain and revising its security arrangements – in light of a reduced American presence, NATO’s eastward expansion and armed intervention in Africa – Timothy Garton Ash, Professor of European Studies at St. Antony’s College, Oxford University, and one of the finest contemporary historians globally, was in Mumbai recently to speak at Gateway House on the lessons that Asia can learn from Europe. Just before the discussion, he spoke to Gateway House’s Senior Researcher Aakash Brahmachari on an Asian union, political morality, Britain in the E.U. and NATO. Excerpts from the interview:

Q. There were several factors that drove the realisation of the European Union. Do you see anything similar driving political union in Asia?

The key drivers of the EU were the memory of war, the Soviet threat, the U.S.’s support, West Germany’s commitment to rehabilitating itself in the European community of nations, and economic interest. I do not see anything comparable in Asia which has rising powers with sharp elbows and a lot of friction. Their elites, however, have an understanding to avoid the mistakes of the past, so as to preserve their economic and political interests. Asian nations have to make a conscious effort at intensive crisis management, conflict avoidance, and co-operation – and it won’t happen on its own.

Q. What are the potential motivators that can lead to an ‘Asian Union’?

Europe decided on an oblique approach, starting with a coal and steel community, and economic cooperation, instead of a defence union. Political union was a gradual process over decades. Building on fields of cooperation like water, energy, environment and space is Asia’s best hope. The German word – verflechtung – building and intertwining a network of a hundred threads to bear the shocks and tensions better – will be useful. However, I don’t see much of it yet.

Q. Do you see Britain willing to bear a burden of austerity like Latvia, or do you predict a Brexit?

Britain is in a very different position. The recent memory of extreme hardship under Soviet occupation has allowed Latvia to bear a 13% decline in GDP without a revolution. The memory of an oppressive past is a huge asset for a country. India, to some extent, has that sight, but the Chinese middle class is losing this. The middle-aged elites running China remember the Cultural Revolution – which makes them cautious, sober, and realistic. Worryingly, the generation which is the product of the single child policy has only known success and growing Chinese power.

Q. Having lived and studied on both sides of the Berlin Wall, where do you see the future of collective European Security headed towards?

With Eastern Europe joining it, NATO became a pan-European security. Only a few European countries – a ‘coalition of the willing’ – have been in Afghanistan, Iraq, and Libya. These countries, including Britain and France – the traditional great powers prepared to use armed force – are dramatically cutting their defence budgets. Any future armed intervention by the EU will be based upon a loose ‘coalition of the willing.’ Europe is big in non-military intervention. It’s the largest aid donor in the world, has more diplomats than any other country, and is the biggest trade partner for much of the world. It’s a mistake to think of intervention simply in militaristic terms.

Q. How do you see this translating into action in Syria?

If the justification of humanitarian intervention is the mass killing of innocent civilians, then we should already have intervened in Syria. Nobody is rushing to intervene because it’s a Yugoslav-type quagmire with deep sectarian divides. A reasonable prospect of success needs to exist in order to justify such an intervention. We might see an American-led and partly European limited intervention in Syria – potentially No Fly Zones and Safe Havens. However, despite the Arab Spring having taken place after decades of stagnation and regress in the Middle East, the EU’s obsession with its own internal problems has prevented it from responding to this historic opportunity.

Q. So does ‘convenience’ trump morality for the EU?

Europe is low among the nations that practice pure realpolitik. It places a high value on the rule of law, human rights, and democratic standards – which often harms its relations with countries like China. Europe dreams of the rest of the world becoming more like itself – a rules-based system of international government. But this looks less likely now than it did ten years ago.

Q. Can traditional European powers maintain their influence in an era of shrinking military budgets?

The combined military spending of the EU is second only to the United States. To retain influence with shrinking military budgets, they need to hang together rather than separately.

Q. How do you see Europe reconciling the growth of Islamic radicalism with cultural diversity?

This is one of the big internal questions for Europe. Around 10% of Europeans are foreign-born or with a migration background – which Europe mishandled in the past two to three decades. We originally treated them as visitors who were here to work temporarily; then we made the mistake of cultural relativism versus multiculturalism, with no common standards between our cultures; lastly, we swung to an extreme and told them to adopt the national culture. The EU, however, is learning from its mistakes. The London Olympics was a model in combining freedom and diversity – which is one of the great challenges for Europe today.

Aakash Brahmachari is a Senior Researcher at Gateway House: Indian Council on Global Relations.

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