The war between Israel and Hamas is standing deadlocked after eight months; it is still violent and far from any ceasefire, of grave concern for regional as well as international stability. Both Israel and Hamas make statements that they are desirous of a ceasefire deal, but their actions speak otherwise. Mediators like Egypt, Qatar and the U.S. express more dismay than confidence about the behaviours of both. Israel and Hamas also both claim victory over each other—Israel claims victory because it has destroyed the military, administrative and ground control of Hamas over Gaza, along with civilian homes, hospitals and schools. Hamas claims victory in resisting the Israeli army, in its prominent leader and mastermind of October 7, Yayha Sinwar, being free and still calling the shots in Gaza and in keeping more than 120 Israelis hostage. The death of thousands of Palestinians in Gaza is a necessary sacrifice according to many Hamas leaders who believe and preach martyrdom in the name of religion as well as the liberation of the Palestinian territories.[1] [2]
U.S. President Joe Biden stands lonely in the muddy conflict of the Middle East, with his constant efforts to mediate a deal being in vain. Since October 7, Biden has been steadfast in his support for the State of Israel and the political solution of the conflict through a two-state solution. Many may not agree, but he has been fair, transparent and truthful in calling out the Israeli leadership, particularly Netanyahu and his government’s ministers when it comes to Israel’s responsibility towards the civilians of Gaza, humanitarian aid and a future state for the Palestinians. It is much to his credit that the moderate Arab states like Jordan, Egypt, UAE and Saudi Arabia came together to resist Iranian temptations to spread the chaos of this conflict in April when Iran attacked Israel with hundreds of missiles and drones.
Biden now faces a challenging situation at home as he prepares to contest again for the U.S. presidency. The Israel-Hamas war has become an emotive, charged discourse within the political ecosystem, public space and university campuses in the U.S. He desperately seeks a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas to calm matters at home first and then move on with the agenda for Israel-Saudi Arabia normalisation in the region. He looks fragile, but his diplomacy is resolute, as seen from his May 31 proposal for a ceasefire, stating, “It’s time for this war to end”.[3]
This latest three-phase proposal, if agreed by Hamas and Israel, will assure an immediate halt to the fighting, the release of some of the hostages in return for the Palestinian prisoners from Israeli jails, surge in humanitarian aid, withdrawal of the Israeli army from the populated areas of Gaza and the return of the civilians to their homes all over Gaza. In the next stage upon the release of all the hostages, Israel will withdraw entirely from Gaza. Thereafter, with a permanent pause, there will be an Arab coalition to reconstruct Gaza.
Most world leaders supported this proposal as soon as Biden presented it, and later, on June 10, it was backed by the UN Security Council.[4] The usual rejectors, of any U.S.-led proposal, Russia and China, didn’t veto this time as there wasn’t a better way – or they knew Hamas or Israel would find a way to evade the proposal. So far, Hamas has delayed its clear response to the deal, demanding that Israel withdraw from Gaza first for any deal to be discussed. This is an absolutist and maximalist position that has been the real obstacle for long.
Hamas is not expected to act responsibly as it doesn’t work with international norms, rules or even the principles of a two-state solution with Israel. With radical ideology and a reckless militant like Yahya Sinwar, it is potentially an outlier and, hence, beyond redemption. Israel’s current leader, Benjamin Netanyahu, finds this tragic reality of the Palestinian movement convenient to evade his responsibility towards the U.S., a ceasefire deal and, more importantly, towards the people of Israel who are asking for an immediate agreement to free their loved ones from Gaza. Netanyahu’s right-wing coalition is intact, and there seems to be no dissent against his hawkish and Machiavellian approach. A large section of Israeli society is protesting against him but is still far from threatening his political survival.
Benjamin Netanyahu may not be interested in a deal, but Israel will not be in a position to reject the Biden proposal as it cannot fight in Gaza or defend itself without the military and financial aid from the U.S. It is up to Biden, therefore, to find leverage over Hamas’ leaders other than Yahya Sinwar, who can agree to a ceasefire. Some of that influence lies with U.S. allies like Qatar and Egypt. Qatar-based Hamas principals like Khaled Mashal and Ismail Haniyeh, are constantly engaged with the Egyptian and Qatari leadership with the explicit caution that if Hamas continues with its maximalist position, they might be expelled from Doha and Cairo. Since these leaders depend on their Arab hosts for political and diplomatic existence outside of Gaza, they may not be in a position to reject the Biden deal.
Dr Khinvraj Jangid is an Associate Professor and Director Centre for Israel Studies, Jindal School of International Affairs, OP Jindal Global University, Sonipat. He is visiting faculty at Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, Israel, for 2022-2024.
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References
[1] Summer Said, Rory Jones, ‘Gaza Chief’s Brutal Calculation: Civilian Bloodshed Will Help Hamas,’ Wall Street Journal, June 10, 2024, https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/gaza-chiefs-brutal-calculation-civilian-bloodshed-will-help-hamas-626720e7
[2] Rasha Nabil interviews former Hamas chief Khaled Mashal on Al Arabiya, YouTube, Oct 21, 2023, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OYsy3O0wLU0
[3] Remarks by President Biden on the Middle East, The White House, May 31, 2024, https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2024/05/31/remarks-by-president-biden-on-the-middle-east-2/
[4] ‘UN Security Council backs US push for Gaza cease-fire,’ Voice of America, June 10, 2024, https://www.voanews.com/a/us-pushes-for-gaza-cease-fire-with-middle-east-talks-security-council-resolution/7649448.html