While in European capitals there is wincing, cringing and angst over the thought of Trump 2.0, New Delhi is taking it in stride. [1]
In early 2020, then President Trump received a magnificent welcome from the Republic of India,[2] branded as “Namaste Trump.” His state visit also won the hearts of the Indian people by his trip to Mahatma Gandhi’s Sabarmati Ashram, and to the Taj Mahal, a symbol of everlasting love, both monuments respectful of India’s history.
India and the U.S. have much to gain from Trump 2.0. There have been some embarrassments between the two, however, centring around the indictment of Indian businessman Gautam Adani for alleged bribery by the U.S. Department of Justice[3] and the extradition of an Indian national last year charged with an assassination plot against a U.S. citizen of Indian antecedents.[4] The Indian foreign ministry has accused American investor George Soros of interference in India’s internal affairs.[5] Nevertheless, these events have not impeded the U.S.-India strategic partnership developed over several decades. Areas of enhanced future collaboration would be envisioned as follows:
First, Silicon Valley and India are inseparable with regard to digital technology – there are CEOs of Indian heritage at Google, Microsoft, Adobe, and Palo Alto Networks, for example. India is known for its extensive software testing capabilities and research centres in its tech hubs of Bengaluru and Hyderabad. Further, various U.S. venture capital firms such Accel, Nexus and Warburg Pincus have invested in the Indian tech sector, and IBM, whose CEO is of Indian origin, is optimistic about investment in the India AI sector.[6] Based on the most recently available data, Georgetown University cites India as ranking second in the production of STEM graduates. [7]
Second, India has a first tier scientific establishment that achieved a Mars orbiter in 2013, Chandrayaan-3 lunar landing in 2023, and a very recent space docking also executed by the Indian Space Research Organisation. [8]It is likely that a major war would be fought in space to compromise telemetry signals and signal processing, as well as other functionality on the electromagnetic spectrum. Although non-binding, India is nonetheless a party to the Artemis Accords that govern civil exploration of space.
Third, trade and foreign direct investment continue to be important for both the U.S. and India. Regulatory procedures, infrastructure and supply chain inefficiency are known constraints, and thus far there has not been a major exodus of companies from China to India, (with the high-profile exception of Apple, which intends to reduce dependence on China and make one-fourth of its iPhones in India). [9] The Gati Shakti plan, announced in 2021, aims to strengthen infrastructure, particularly railways, roadways and ports, as well as to integrate the planning process of various government ministries and departments.
Launched in 2023, the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC), consisting of India, the U.S., European Union and some Gulf countries, is a massive undertaking to increase economic integration and logistics among the sponsoring nations, and compete with China’s Belt and Road Initiative. It is well known that China is surrounding India with its so-called string of pearls, a network of maritime facilities designed to project Chinese power and serve as dual use installations, running from China to East Africa, and including for example Sri Lanka, Myanmar, Bangladesh, and Pakistan’s Gwadar port about 380 miles from the strategic Strait of Hormuz, where an estimated 20% to 30% of world oil passes each day. [10]
India is frequently characterized as an offset or counterweight to China, and the IMEC is one such example: India refuses to succumb and be subjugated to the dictates of the Chinese Politburo in the conduct of trade and investment. India participates in the Malabar exercise and QUAD for security cooperation, the latter also including the U.S., Japan, Singapore and Australia. Were India’s borders threatened or were there a confrontation in the Indian Ocean, where both navies patrol the oil sea lanes, India would likely respond militarily. However, a fight over Taiwan or the South China Sea are not viewed in its principal spheres of influence.
The new Trump administration is expected to be dominated by China hawks who have been confirmed or nominated for key positions: Marco Rubio, Secretary of State; Pete Hegseth, Secretary of Defense; Mike Walz, National Security Advisor; John Ratcliff, Director of the CIA; and Elbridge Colby, Undersecretary of Defense for Policy. The pushback against the Chinese Communist Party will please the Indian foreign policy establishment, which like the U.S. must address the ascent and bullying tactics of China.
Fourth, diversification away from Russia and Soviet era military equipment should continue, to the extent practical. The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute reports that from 2019-2023, Russia represented 36% of India’s arms imports,[11] a decrease from 76% about 15 years ago. [12] This trend reflects promising diversification and procurements from the U.S. and France that represent almost half India’s arms imports. [13]The Indian services will require major Russian support for many years, however Russia’s reliability as a supplier has been diminished by the Ukraine war. [14] Of special note, Lockheed Martin and the Tata Group have partnered to produce the F-21, an upgraded development of the F-16 specifically for the Indian Air Force, [15] in concert with the Make in India initiative to increase local manufacturing.
Neither Prime Minister Narendra Modi nor President Donald Trump are part of the traditional and entrenched political establishments. In this way, both are reformers who share aspirations for changes in the direction of their countries and the way governance is conducted.
The outlook for Trump 2.0 should be favorable for the Republic of India and the United States as partners.
Frank Schell is a business strategy consultant and former senior vice president of the First National Bank of Chicago. He was a Lecturer at the Harris School of Public Policy, University of Chicago on South Asia public policy, and is a contributor of opinion pieces to various journals.
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References
[1] Mujib Masal, “Trump’s Return Has Unnerved World Leaders. But Not India.”, New York Times, January 18, 2025, https://www.nytimes.com/2025/01/18/world/asia/india-eric-garcetti-interview.html
[2] Frank Schell, “President Trump takes India by Storm”, The American Spectator, February 25, 2020, https://spectator.org/president-trump-takes-india-by-storm/
[3] Frank Schell, “Justice Department Indicts Top Indian Company for Bribery”, The American Spectator, December 4, 2024, https://spectator.org/justice-indicts-top-indian-company-for-bribery/
[4] U.S. Department of Justice, “Justice Department Announces Extradition of Indian National Charged in Connection with Foiled Plot to Assassinate U.S. Citizen in New York City”, Press Release, June 17, 2024. https://www.justice.gov/archives/opa/pr/us-attorney-announces-extradition-indian-national-charged-connection-foiled-plot-assassinate#:~:text=%E2%80%9CLast%20year%2C%20the%20DEA%20uncovered,U.S.%20citizen%20on%20U.S.%20soil
[5] Ibid.
[6] IANS, “Our investment in India will keep growing: IBM CEO Arvind Krishna” Economic Times CIO, August 30, 2023, https://cio.economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/corporate-news/our-investment-in-india-will-keep-growing-ibm-ceo-arvind-krishna/103194963
[7] Brendan Oliss, Cole McFaul and Jaret C. Riddick, “The Global Distribution of STEM Graduates: Which countries lead the way?”, Centre for Security and Emerging Technology, November 27, 2023, https://cset.georgetown.edu/article/the-global-distribution-of-stem-graduates-which-countries-lead-the-way/
[8] Helen Regan, “India achieves first space docking, becoming fourth country to achieve major milestone”, CNN, January 16, 2025, https://www.cnn.com/2025/01/15/india/india-space-docking-attempt-intl-hnk/index.html
[9] Rajesh Roy, “Apple Aims to Make a Quarter of the World’s iPhones in India”, Wall Street Journal, December 8, 2023, https://www.wsj.com/tech/apple-aims-to-make-a-quarter-of-the-worlds-iphones-in-india-ab7f6342
[10] Strauss Centre, “Strait of Hormuz: Assessing the threat to oil flows through the Strait”,https://www.strausscenter.org/strait-of-hormuz-about-the-strait/
[11] SIPRI in the media, “European arms imports nearly double, US and French exports rise, and Russian exports fall sharply”, Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, March 11, 2024, https://www.sipri.org/media/press-release/2024/european-arms-imports-nearly-double-us-and-french-exports-rise-and-russian-exports-fall-sharply
[12] Bloomberg, “India pivots from Russia to US for weapons, marking realignment in global arms trade”, South China Morning Post, December 3, 2024, https://www.scmp.com/news/asia/south-asia/article/3289157/india-pivots-russia-us-weapons-marking-realignment-global-arms-trade
[13] ET Online, “India remains world’s largest arms importer, Russia its top supplier”, The Economic Times, March 12, 2024, https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/defence/india-remains-worlds-top-arms-importer-sipri-report/articleshow/108399377.cms?from=mdr
[14] Krishn Kaushik, “Russia cannot meet arms delivery commitments because of war, Indian Air Force say”, Reuters, March 23, 2023, https://www.reuters.com/world/india/russia-cannot-meet-arms-delivery-commitments-because-war-indian-air-force-says-2023-03-23/
[15] Lockheed Martin, “F21- For India. From India.”, https://www.lockheedmartin.com/en-us/products/f-21.html