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23 June 2012, The Diplomat

Where China Leads, India Follows?

The Diplomat, an online magazine, republished Dinshaw Mistry's article on India's capabilities to emulate China in its space programs. He argues that technology-wise alone, India could do so, but it will take 15 to 20 years.

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China this past week affirmed its status as one of the world’s three leading space powers by sending three astronauts, including its first woman astronaut, into space. On June 16, the powerful CZ-2F rocket lifted the Shenzhou 9 spacecraft, carrying the astronauts; on June 18, the Shenzhou docked with the Tiangong lab module, where the astronauts will stay for several days. This was another milestone for China’s ambitious space program, creating fresh pride in the country.

Should India emulate China to become the world’s fourth country with such capabilities? This depends on whether India can actually develop such capabilities, at what cost, and for what benefit.

India’s space program has advanced incrementally over the past four decades. In the 1970s and 1980s, it built small satellites and light rockets, and since the mid-1990s, it has built heavier satellites and more powerful rockets. India thus has one of the world’s few space programs capable of launching satellites along with countries including the U. S., Russia, China and Japan. Its annual space expenditures of around $1.5 billion are far lower than the $3 billion to $5 billion each for Russia, China, Japan, and Europe, and several billions for the United States. Also, India conducts fewer launches than its space peers – in the past two years (2010 and 2011), it conducted six launches, comparable with Japan’s five, but less than Europe’s 11, China’s 34, the United States’ 31 and Russia’s 66.



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