The general election in Italy on 25 September led to a victory for Giorgia Meloni’s Fratelli d’Italia (FdI) or the Brothers of Italy party. Many see this as a strong turn to the right in Italy. It is more a manifestation of a redistribution of support among the right-wing parties in Italy. Her coalition with the League of Salvini and Forza Italia of former Prime Minister Berlusconi secured 43% of the seats in the lower house and 44% in the upper house.[1] This will make Meloni the first woman to be Prime Minister of Italy
The left coalition secured 26% in both houses, while the former favourite, the Five Star Movement, got 15.5% in each house. The centre coalition managed just under 8% in both houses, while minor parties got 6.7 per cent. The importance of this election is that the Right wing swept the election, because the Centre-left could not come together and thus frittered the advantage. Meloni put together a coalition with other right-wing parties. In reality, the votes the FdI gathered are from the share of their coalition partners on the Right than from the Left.
Compared to 2018 when the League had 17.4% of the vote, it is now down to 8.9% and Forza Italia’s14% is 8%, with both becoming junior partners in the coalition. The FdI leapt dramatically from 4.4% in 2018 to 26.2% now, to make it the major winner of this election.
Of the 22% vote that they have gained, 14% shifted from their right-wing allies. Some may have shifted from the Five Star Movement which led the 2018 polls with 32.7% but has now fallen to 15.1%.
The new main opposition, the Democratic Party, however, which had 18.8% in 2018, increased its vote share to 19.2 percent.[2]
What of the greens and small parties? Their vote share at 3.7% is almost unchanged at. The new centre coalition Action and Italy Alive of Carlo Calenda and Matteo Renzi got 7.7% together. Therefore, the point that this was a redistribution of the right-wing vote is clearly established.[3]
However, voter turnout fell to 64% from 72% in 2018 – the lowest ever for a country which normally votes in large numbers. There is disenchantment with traditional parties and politics.[4]
This election has to be understood in the context of the changed constitutional organisation of Parliament and the election system.[5]
In 2020, Italy had a constitutional referendum, which reduced the size of its parliament.[6] The Chamber of Deputies was cut from 630 to 400 members and the Senate from 315 to 200 elected members. In 2021 a further amendment led to the voting age for the Senate being lowered from 25 to 18 – same as the Chamber of Deputies, giving both houses of parliament the same voting cohort. A third of seats are elected from first-past-the-post single-member constituencies. Two-thirds emerge from proportional party lists. Voters cannot divide their vote, by choosing different parties in both lists. The single-candidate ballot is an indicator of each coalition’s support in a region. This hurts smaller parties, and promotes alliances aimed at scoring in the direct constituencies. Pre-poll alliances have a limited bearing on parties once members are elected and won’t necessarily manifest the amalgam of the next governing coalition.
This was one of the winding routes to the current coalition win. The 2018 election resulted in a hung parliament. Talks between the Five Star Movement (M5S) and the League led to a government under Giuseppe Conte, a law professor adjunct to the M5S. His cabinet was criticised in the global media as the ‘most populist government in Western Europe’[7] A year later, in 2019, the Italian government crisis led to the second Conte cabinet, which quit while facing the pandemic of 2020. Subsequently a Government of National Unity was formed under former ECB President Mario Draghi in February 2021.[8]
The Democratic Party’s major error was to inveigle its way and stay in power without having enough of a mandate over almost a decade, through the Unity governments of Draghi. Anti-incumbency hit it hardest so it could not expand vote share. Its inability to bring the centre and left together shrank its chances of being a major player.
The FdI astutely kept out of the national unity government, thus untainted by anti-incumbency and instead seen as a party that could bring change. This attachment of political hope to untested parties had earlier brought the Five Star Movement to the fore. But it frittered its large vote share by being poorly prepared to govern. The leaders of the right like Forza Italia and the Alliance are diminished because of their participation in government of national unity and therefore suffering for their role in it.
The FdI has the advantage of articulating the interests of traditional rural labour unions, particularly in the fringes of urban towns. These unions have lost touch with the centre-left but need articulation in dire economic times and found resonance in the FdI.. For example, the national unity government sought to bring both the unions of taxi drivers[9] and the unions of beach service providers[10]into a licensing system to conform to EU regulations. This antagonised them. Similar anguish impacted other small service provider groups.
Given the economic situation, the people of Italy expect better economic performance, better employment, and better social security, given their aging demographic. The extant government was not catering to this and was seen to be adhering to EU-led value systems. This was a mismatch. Issues relating to gender, abortion and LGBTQ rights remain important in Italy, but have ceased taking primacy because people want their family values to be respected.[11]
The FdI took an important position along with the government of national unity on their security, NATO and the Russia-Ukraine issue. The FdI supported with the government from the outside while Forza and the League were within, but soft on Russia.
On Russia, Meloni will not be contentious. It is on the economic and social impact that the FdI is different. There is concern about immigration. Implementation of regularisation of immigrants in Italy which took about a decade, now takes 15 to 18 years. This is not the outcome of policy, but of inefficiency and the impact of COVID.
Like in other European countries, the role of the second and third generation immigrants in unlawful activity has come to the fore. This challenges the humanity associated with allowing immigrants in, because these immigrants are now not spawning radicalism in their countries of origin, but within Italy. The strong statement by Meloni about how mosques will be regulated[12] raises concerns in Italy but consolidates her support base too.
The FdI has never governed before. It needs professionals to manage its government and not give away too much to its partners. Public disaffection can be quick. The EU is already watchful. Meloni will have to keep a smart balance.[13]
Gurjit Singh was India’s ambassador to Germany, Indonesia, Ethiopia, ASEAN and the African Union.
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References
[1] Estimated percentage of votes won in the chamber of deputies and senate in the Italian general election of 2022, by coalition, Statista, 28 September 2022, https://www.statista.com/statistics/1335834/italy-election-results/
[2] Italy — 2022 general election, Politico, https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/italy/
[3] James L Newell, Italy’s general election was no electoral revolution, LSE, 27 September 2022, https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2022/09/27/italys-general-election-was-no-electoral-revolution/
[4] Giulia Carbonaro, What Italy’s election results tell us about the country and its future, Euronews, 26 September 2022, https://www.euronews.com/2022/09/26/what-italys-election-results-tell-us-about-the-country-and-its-future
[5] Matthew E. Bergman, Italy’s constitutional referendum: Yet another reform to improve the country’s governability, LSE, 14 September 2020, https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2020/09/14/italys-constitutional-referendum-yet-another-reform-to-improve-the-countrys-governability/
[6] Giorgio Leali, Size matters as Italy votes on shrinking parliament, Politico, 18 September 2020 https://www.politico.eu/article/italians-vote-in-constitutional-referendum-mps-on-shrinking-parliament/
[7] Italy government: Giuseppe Conte to head populist coalition, BBC, 1 June 2018, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-44322429
[8] Hannah Roberts, Mario Draghi forms Italian government, Politico, 12 February 2021
https://www.politico.eu/article/mario-draghi-forms-italian-government/
[9] Italy: Unionized taxi drivers to strike nationwide, Crisis24garda.com, 15 July 2022, https://crisis24.garda.com/alerts/2022/07/italy-unionized-taxi-drivers-to-strike-nationwide-july-20-21
[10] Viola Stefanello, New competition bill doesn’t solve historic Italy-EU dispute over beach operators, Euractiv, 5 November 2021, https://www.euractiv.com/section/politics/short_news/new-competition-bill-doesnt-solve-historic-italy-eu-dispute-over-beach-operators/
[11] LGBTQ and women’s rights advocates worried after Meloni’s win in Italy, Euronews, 28 September 2022, https://www.euronews.com/2022/09/28/lgbtq-and-womens-rights-advocates-worried-after-melonis-win-in-italy
[12] New Italy PM Girorgia Meloni’s Statement On Mosques Goes Viral, India Today video 27 September 2022 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I7n8B_A4Q2o
[13] Isaac Chotiner “I’m a Woman, I’m a Mother, I’m Christian”: How Giorgia Meloni Took Control in the Italian Election, The New Yorker 28 September 2022, https://www.newyorker.com/news/q-and-a/im-a-woman-im-a-mother-im-christian-how-giorgia-meloni-took-control-in-the-italian-election