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Xi Jinping’s visit to South America to attend the APEC and G20 meetings had multiple goals. To inaugurate a new gateway for China in Peru’s Chancay port, sign three dozen cooperation agreements with Brazil, and make nice with the continent’s nations from Chile to the Honduras. Did it succeed in expanding China’s influence in the region? Most certainly, yes.
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The 16th BRICS Summit, held in Russia’s Kazan in October, was the first summit of the expanded grouping. With 13 new partner states invited, it revealed how increased membership has the potential to enhance the grouping’s influence. For India, BRICS serves as a bridge between the west, the east, the north and the south, making New Delhi the geopolitical sweet spot.
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The Maritime Silk Road, the Belt and Road Initiative, and a sizeable catalogue of agreements with actors from Kabul to Tel-Aviv have been the basis for the growing presence of China spanning the military, diplomatic, economic, and political spheres in the Middle East.
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There is much discussion these days on the world order and the continuation or demise of the current format. To understand why this powerful agglomeration of states and rules is now being questioned, it is necessary to understand the role of China, its co-option of the institutions and rules of the world order, and the parallel order it is creating centred around itself.
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China has just announced a grand stimulus for its economy. An analysis of the outcome of the Third Party Plenum held in July, where many of these measures take birth, shows that despite the optimistic planning, China is readjusting its ambitions for future stability.
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A decade after its launch, China’s Belt and Road Initiative has slowed down in South Asia, the result of poorly conceived projects, and irresponsible behavior from borrower and lender alike.
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The 9th China-Africa Summit, held in Beijing from September 4-6, reflected China’s long-held view that Africa is vital to the world’s future, and therefore to the conduct of Chinese foreign policy. As China expands its strategic footprint on the continent, there is much for India to learn. It must adopt a proactive approach and back its economic and diplomatic initiatives with sustained political will.
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China and India both give great importance to their neighbours – the former through its Friendly Neighbourhood policy, the latter through Neighbourhood First. Although China has been increasing its influence in the region, narratives that say that India is losing out to China lack in-depth analysis. To deduce the future trajectory of China in South Asia, it is important to study both China’s and India’s relations with each of these countries, as also with each other.
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Comparing India and China’s defence forces reveals that it is more than just a numbers game. Increased defence spending and modernization with AI and quantum computing has given China a substantial edge over India’s military capability. India is working to close the gap with an energetic focus on indigenous procurement and expanding international exercises.
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The foreign policy of the new government in India will likely be a continuum from previous years. But as election outcomes in other parts of the democratic world witness a transformation, India should prepare for flexibility in its policy – and keep up its guard.