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The advent of the pro-oil Donald Trump in the U.S. and the strong pushback by developing countries to the unsatisfactory COP29 proposals, has opened opportunities for India in the energy sector. Instead of investing in overseas oil facilities, India will be better served as a financial investor in listed companies in large economies. This approach will help forge closer ties with strategic partners.
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On October 31, Adani Power halved the electricity supply to Bangladesh, owing to outstanding dues. Bangladesh’s already weak economy has become worse under the new regime, with the country running short of funds to pay for imports of fuel and electricity.
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The Maritime Silk Road, the Belt and Road Initiative, and a sizeable catalogue of agreements with actors from Kabul to Tel-Aviv have been the basis for the growing presence of China spanning the military, diplomatic, economic, and political spheres in the Middle East.
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A potential escalation of the Iran-Israel conflict will affect energy supplies globally. Tempering the conflict will help the U.S. keep petrol prices down before its election, protect the oil and gas export traffic in the Persian Gulf, keep the surreptitious Iran-Malaysia-China oil sales going, and prevent a major headache for India, which imports over 80% of its oil.
Courtesy: Sputnik India
Pakistan’s peripheral regions have long been treated as colonies to benefit the Punjabi core. This neglect is facing a vigorous pushback, in the form of peaceful protests and violent resistance. The economic crisis has exacerbated tensions in Baluchistan, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Gilgit-Baltistan, which remain poor despite abundant natural resources.
Courtesy: Economy
The long-delayed Iran-Pakistan pipeline has put Pakistan in yet another bind of its own making. Abandoning the project will expose it to Iranian penalties, while completing it will violate the sanctions imposed by the U.S., its financial benefactor, and its other patron Saudi Arabia which competes with Iran for West Asian leadership.
Courtesy: The Wire
India and Sri Lanka recently signed six energy agreements, including plans for an oil pipeline from India to Sri Lanka, electricity grid connectivity, and cooperation in renewable energy. Sri Lanka can benefit from India's cost-effective oil sourcing and processing and pay for it in rupees, easing its balance of payments crisis. Its wider use of the Rupee fulfills a long term objective for Indian policymakers.
Courtesy: Nikkei Asia
China-centric global supply chains are being disrupted by rising geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and China and multiple global shocks, forcing multinational companies to rethink are global sourcing strategies. India can leverage this moment to become a complementary manufacturing hub in Asia by reaping gains from technology transfers and creating value-adding jobs.
Courtesy: The Times of India
On July 21, Sri Lankan President Ranil Wickremesinghe is set to visit for the first time since taking office. India has already provided $5 billion in economic assistance to Sri Lanka, and is now looking to expand its investment in the nation. Sri Lanka is also seeing interest from Indian private investment. The visit presents an opportunity for the two countries extend this relationship in new areas of cooperation, especially energy, infrastructure, and tourism.
Courtesy: Deutsche Welle (DW)
On July 13, the German cabinet approved its Strategy on China after nearly two years of internal discussions. The new strategy simultaneously views China as a “partner, competitor, and systemic rival”, calling for de-risking German economic dependence on China, while also expanding cooperation with other countries in the Indo-Pacific region.