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Five rather unfavourable trends define India’s trade performance over the past two years; these trends also provide useful pointers as to where India’s future trade strategy can go over the next three years as it deals with a global economic slowdown, the rise of megatrade agreements and a pivot to a more intensive trade relation with the U.S.
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India must be fully engaged in the emerging G20-led international policy agenda being developed to deal with global structural weaknesses and raise public investment where fiscal space is available. India and other emerging markets offer higher investment returns---partly because of their demographics---and their deepening international integration makes them attractive.
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In two years, the Modi government’s Act East Policy has gone well beyond the focus on economic ties of its predecessor, the Look East Policy. It has made progress on many wider fronts, including connectivity and defence collaboration. India must now build on this success and further consolidate relations and trade links with ASEAN and beyond
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India and Singapore elevated their ever deepening relationship to a strategic partnership last year. The two countries laid out an ambitious roadmap for expansion and diversification of bilateral ties. What drives this multi-layered bilateral relationship?
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India has hosted a plethora of India-Africa conferences, expressing commitment to deepen mutual cooperation. It is further expected that the president, vice president, and prime minister may visit Africa this year, to follow up actively. Indeed, a senior official predicts Africa will even become “the diplomatic flavour in 2016”. An analysis.
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What should the 2016-17 Union Budget in the pipeline propose for India’s fiscal stance? Is there a growth-oriented case to raise public investment and the deficit target above the planned fiscal consolidation? A review in the right global and regional context.
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Despite major political change in Brazil, Argentina, and Venezuela due to global economic tumult, it may be premature to speak of a rightward shift in Latin American politics. Yet, developments in these democracies need to be monitored carefully as India has a stake in their political stability.
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French President Hollande was the chief guest at the Republic Day parade on 26 January 2016. India-France relations, post President Hollande’s visit, are promising, and will have a positive impact on Prime Minister Modi’s scheduled visit to Brussels later this year including India's trade with the EU. Informed citizenry should appreciate the huge stakes involved.
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Is China actively building up its maritime presence in the Arabian Sea, to dominate vital sea lanes and perhaps encircle India with a chain of naval bases? There can be little doubt that China views Gwadar as a potentially useful asset. China, however, will know better than anyone that Gwadar has two considerable limitations.
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Low GDP growth numbers and the tumbling Shanghai Composite are not enough to judge China’s economic management strategy. It is the long-term, structural, and geoeconomic challenges that will determine the country’s economic future