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China and India both give great importance to their neighbours – the former through its Friendly Neighbourhood policy, the latter through Neighbourhood First. Although China has been increasing its influence in the region, narratives that say that India is losing out to China lack in-depth analysis. To deduce the future trajectory of China in South Asia, it is important to study both China’s and India’s relations with each of these countries, as also with each other.
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Comparing India and China’s defence forces reveals that it is more than just a numbers game. Increased defence spending and modernization with AI and quantum computing has given China a substantial edge over India’s military capability. India is working to close the gap with an energetic focus on indigenous procurement and expanding international exercises.
Courtesy: South China Morning Post
The recently-concluded National People’s Congress or Two Sessions in Beijing didn’t surprise much. But a thorough analysis reveals departures from the past – not holding a press interaction after the meeting, and further consolidation of domestic power by the Communist Party of China. Of note to India is the delinking of China’s defence budget from the country’s rate of growth – meaning freedom to enhance its military’s capability.
Courtesy: Global Times
China’s world vision has entered its next phase. After the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), come the Global Initiative on Data Security (GIDS) so Chinese tech standards can lead, Global Development Initiative (GDI) so China leads the development dialogue, and Global Security Initiative (GSI), so China’s security is ‘indivisible’ from other countries – all in time for China’s 2049 goal of becoming a global power.
Courtesy: Al Majalla
Maldives’ President Mohammed Muizzu’s desire to have an independent foreign policy has steered it away from India and closer to China. It has added a new dimension to the strategic contestation in the Indian Ocean. Rajiv Bhatia, Distinguished Fellow, Foreign Policy Studies, shares his insights on the Maldives’ strategic importance in the region, the ‘India Out’ campaign, and the way forward for Indian diplomacy in South Asia.
Courtesy: Lowy Institute
The 15th BRICS summit is set to take place on August 22-24 in Johannesburg. Against a backdrop of escalating global tensions, the summit's agenda encompasses crucial topics including greater representation of the Global South, reform of MDBs, and geopolitical flashpoints like the Ukraine crisis. The summit's outcomes will extend beyond the grouping and redefine the landscape of international cooperation among emerging economies.
Courtesy: Deutsche Welle (DW)
On July 13, the German cabinet approved its Strategy on China after nearly two years of internal discussions. The new strategy simultaneously views China as a “partner, competitor, and systemic rival”, calling for de-risking German economic dependence on China, while also expanding cooperation with other countries in the Indo-Pacific region.
Courtesy: The Dahrendorf Forum
The Russia-Ukraine conflict has led to the resurgence of interest in Central Asian as an alternate trade corridor between Europe and Asia. Timely investment in connectivity projects like the Middle Corridor and the INSTC by regional stakeholders, as well as by the EU, China and India, must now build on this interest to create new regional, international, and cross-continental transport corridors.
Courtesy: India Today
The Shanghai Cooperation Organisation's growing importance is seen in the numerous new applicants waiting in line for membership. The 23rd SCO Summit hosted by India on July 4 saw progress in areas like digital transformation and economic cooperation. However, timidity in acting on foundational issues like anti-terrorism reflects the internal contradictions and tensions within member states - a continuing challenge for SCO.
Courtesy: Swarajya
India, as chair of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, hosted the foreign ministers’ meet in Goa last week. What would have been an important and expanding regional grouping has been complicated by the Russia-Ukraine crisis, the increased influence of China and an obstructionist Pakistan. Still, India has played its role with an eye on the long term.