Courtesy:
The May 31 ceasefire deal proposed by U.S. President Joe Biden is the best on offer for Hamas and Israel. Hamas has delayed its response to the deal, demanding Israeli withdrawal from Gaza first. This absolutist and maximalist position allows Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to conveniently evade his responsibility towards the U.S., a ceasefire deal, and his own people.
Courtesy: The Times of Israel
Grey zones have blurred the frontiers of conflict and peace worldwide, creating ambiguous wars of complex scenarios and labyrinths that have transformed strategic foresight and the international and national security landscape. In these arenas, multiple options are available, where regional powers' ascertainments converge with the poker game of political, diplomatic, economic, and military interests, as well as the operations of state and non-state actors.
Courtesy: CivisDaily
The Oslo Accords’ two-state solution for Palestine-Israel, visualised Gaza and the West Bank as self-governing entities under the Palestinian Authority. That political hope existed in an expanding global economy led by the U.S. and secured by American armies, with the promise of capital flows and investments to develop Palestine on its way to statehood. All this changed in the 2000s, as both Israelis and Palestinians became significant regional actors.
Courtesy: The Indian Express
Hamas faces an existential crisis in Gaza now that the Israeli army has captured its military headquarters and operating tunnels in northern Gaza. So far Israel has successfully ignored international pressure to limit its ground operation. In between are the Gazans, caught within an ideology they don’t trust.
Courtesy: The Atlantic
By blending Islam, Marxism-Leninism, Arab nationalism, and Third World radicalism during the 1960s, Yasser Arafat succeeded beyond expectations, in impactfully putting the Palestinian question forward for international attention. The spoiler was Hamas, with its jihadi calls for the cause of Palestine and rejection of peace initiatives.
Courtesy: Nikkei Asia
The Israel-Hamas War has shown the devastating impact of disinformation as a strategy of unconventional warfare. This narrative-led approach begins before hostilities start and seeks to set the agenda for leaders, their militaries and geopolitics. Democratic societies like India must prepare for similarly coordinated strategies and build societal resilience to manipulation.
Courtesy: The Jerusalem Post
The October 7 intrusion of Hamas into Israel has exposed a respectable military institution and one of the most influential intelligence agencies, impacting their image in a contest where prestige is crucial. It weakens the Palestinian Authority internally and abroad, diminishes any peace processes, buries hope of a two-state solution, and marks the beginning of an unprecedented phase of war with repercussions far beyond the region.
Courtesy: The Intercept
There are multiple threads running through the Israel-Hamas conflict, and multiple interests. The long-running cast of the Arab and Western worlds are on site, but now so is a newly-assertive Qatar. Two others are potential players: the expanded BRICS grouping and India, which will soon co-invest in the India-Middle East Europe Corridor. Will they be drawn into the West Asian quagmire?
Courtesy: The Independent
The Israel-Hamas conflict can further destabilise a world already weighed down by the Ukraine war and U.S.-China tensions. Escalation is inevitable, unless Europe recovers its traditional mediating role of advocating for ceasefire, dialogue and negotiated solutions, the Axis of Resistance desists, and the BRICS-11 play balancer. For the first time, there are many actors in an arena where the US was accustomed to being a soloist.
Courtesy: Observer Research Foundation
In West Asia, nations such as Saudi Arabia and other Gulf countries are starting to understand their pivotal geopolitical positioning in world affairs – and are making calibrated and strategic moves to preserve or recover global stability. It’s welcome at a time when more than two dozen conflicts are ongoing, when geopolitical rivals have hardened their positions, and diplomacy has failed to de-escalate in the primary contests.