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South Africa has just celebrated the 30th anniversary of its epic elections in 1994 which marked the end of apartheid rule. President de Klerk and Nelson Mandela avoided the expected bloodbath but, since then, the ruling African National Congress has not done well. Because the very qualities which make insurgent groups and liberation movements successful, are not the ones that make effective national governments.
Courtesy: Bayerischer Rundfunk
The North Atlantic Treaty Organisation turns 75 this year. It has exceeded its original mandate of a collective defence for Europe and is expanding rapidly. From restraining the rise of Russia, it is now seeking non-NATO allies in Asia who wish to restrain China. This requires a nimbler, more dynamic alliance. Can NATO respond to the transformation?
Courtesy: The Times of Israel
Grey zones have blurred the frontiers of conflict and peace worldwide, creating ambiguous wars of complex scenarios and labyrinths that have transformed strategic foresight and the international and national security landscape. In these arenas, multiple options are available, where regional powers' ascertainments converge with the poker game of political, diplomatic, economic, and military interests, as well as the operations of state and non-state actors.
Courtesy: CGTN
China’s hostile actions in the East and South China Seas have led to a deepening of naval partnerships within the Indo-Pacific such as the U.S., Japan, Philippines, Australia and South Korea. As crises in West Asia escalate and the strategic contest between the U.S. and China hardens in the Pacific Ocean, India – placed strategically in the Indo-Pacific – can’t neglect either the west nor east.
Courtesy: The Hindu
Long treated by Pakistan as a colony, Balochistan has seen several high-profile attacks by locals against Chinese interests. The growing unrest in the region reflects Islamabad’s failure to address key development issues. With less than 10% of this year’s federal budget earmarked for development, it appears that the only means of quelling the violence is more repression.
Courtesy: India Today
Just as September 11, 2001 unfolded a new chapter of the world order, as December 17, 2010 awakened the "Arab Spring," so October 7, 2023, has become a date that has unforgettably changed the Middle East's foreign policy and geopolitical dynamics. The existential paradigm of Israel and Palestine has adopted a war axis without turning back but has necessitated reevaluating diplomacy and recalibrating priorities.
Courtesy: Global Times
China’s world vision has entered its next phase. After the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), come the Global Initiative on Data Security (GIDS) so Chinese tech standards can lead, Global Development Initiative (GDI) so China leads the development dialogue, and Global Security Initiative (GSI), so China’s security is ‘indivisible’ from other countries – all in time for China’s 2049 goal of becoming a global power.
Courtesy: CivisDaily
The Oslo Accords’ two-state solution for Palestine-Israel, visualised Gaza and the West Bank as self-governing entities under the Palestinian Authority. That political hope existed in an expanding global economy led by the U.S. and secured by American armies, with the promise of capital flows and investments to develop Palestine on its way to statehood. All this changed in the 2000s, as both Israelis and Palestinians became significant regional actors.
Courtesy: Jurist
The parallel political and security crises in Myanmar and Manipur have led Indian authorities to consider abolishing the Indo-Myanmar Free Movement Regime (FMR). However, without long-term policy efforts to ameliorate the political and economic situation along the border, ending the FMR and fencing the Indo-Myanmar border is unlikely to resolve India’s security problems in the region.
Courtesy: The Economist
After a year affected by a sustained polycrisis, global geopolitics in 2024 remains a delicate dance between hope and realism. Ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza cast uncertain shadows, while Taiwan and the South China Sea present potential flashpoints. Indian diplomacy will have to navigate old and new challenges, while promoting India’s expertise in digital technology, as also managing its own upcoming parliamentary elections.