BRI sputters in South Asia
A decade after its launch, China’s Belt and Road Initiative has slowed down in South Asia, the result of poorly conceived projects, and irresponsible behavior from borrower and lender alike.
A decade after its launch, China’s Belt and Road Initiative has slowed down in South Asia, the result of poorly conceived projects, and irresponsible behavior from borrower and lender alike.
China and India both give great importance to their neighbours – the former through its Friendly Neighbourhood policy, the latter through Neighbourhood First. Although China has been increasing its influence in the region, narratives that say that India is losing out to China lack in-depth analysis. To deduce the future trajectory of China in South Asia, it is important to study both China’s and India’s relations with each of these countries, as also with each other.
Long treated by Pakistan as a colony, Balochistan has seen several high-profile attacks by locals against Chinese interests. The growing unrest in the region reflects Islamabad’s failure to address key development issues. With less than 10% of this year’s federal budget earmarked for development, it appears that the only means of quelling the violence is more repression.
Maldives’ President Mohammed Muizzu’s desire to have an independent foreign policy has steered it away from India and closer to China. It has added a new dimension to the strategic contestation in the Indian Ocean. Rajiv Bhatia, Distinguished Fellow, Foreign Policy Studies, shares his insights on the Maldives’ strategic importance in the region, the ‘India Out’ campaign, and the way forward for Indian diplomacy in South Asia.
China's economic slowdown and pandemic-related and post-pandemic disruptions to supply chains have dampened China’s attractiveness as a global supply chains hub. Ganeshan Wignaraja, Professorial Fellow in Economics and Trade at Gateway House speaks with Georgina Godwin on The Globalist by Monocle, about the prospects for India to emerge as an alternative manufacturing hub in Asia, and takeaways for the broader South Asian region.
The Shanghai Cooperation Organisation's growing importance is seen in the numerous new applicants waiting in line for membership. The 23rd SCO Summit hosted by India on July 4 saw progress in areas like digital transformation and economic cooperation. However, timidity in acting on foundational issues like anti-terrorism reflects the internal contradictions and tensions within member states - a continuing challenge for SCO.
India, as chair of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, hosted the foreign ministers’ meet in Goa last week. What would have been an important and expanding regional grouping has been complicated by the Russia-Ukraine crisis, the increased influence of China and an obstructionist Pakistan. Still, India has played its role with an eye on the long term.
2023 brings responsibility and opportunity for India. As the host of the G20 and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, the world will be watching closely. With this authority, comes challenges encapsulated by five C’s: Covid, Contraction, Climate crisis, Conflict and China. If India is able to use its opportunity, the year could end with India viewed as a near-great power, an international bridge-builder, and a successful democracy.
The relevance of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation has increased due to the clear divisions developing in the world, since the Ukraine crisis began. Several leaders will probably attend in-person, a chance to advance their regional and economic interests. India has good relations with most SCO countries, and sees the upcoming Summit as a way to secure its strategic and security objectives.
Since 1947, India has had a proud record of development cooperation. It began even though it was newly independent and itself developing, but created a camaraderie with movements in other emerging countries. Now after 75 years, its time to move toward an FDI-led model, which will particularly help reduce the rising indebtedness in the developing world.