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Gateway House presents a timeline that highlights the cross-border dynamics between Myanmar and India’s northeast. Myanmar’s military coup and breakdown of authority have aggravated existing local problems related to population displacement, border security, competition for resources and ethnic tensions. Now India must engage more directly with the entities that control land along its borders, and the local communities who know it best.
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The timeline records the daily instances and ongoing cross-border dynamics between India and Myanmar since the February 2021 military coup in Myanmar. It tracks the events taking place in the eight states along the Indo-Myanmar border—four states in India (Arunachal Pradesh, Nagaland, Mizoram, and Manipur) and four in Myanmar (Kachin, Sagaing, Chin, and Rakhine), revealing their social, political and economic interconnectedness.
Courtesy: The Indian Express
Over three years of civil war in Myanmar, and there is no end in sight. The country’s stakeholders are unable to de-escalate the conflict or reliably distribute aid to those affected. Friends, including India, must step in — not only to stop the fighting and alleviate the suffering, but to help facilitate a return to normalcy.
Courtesy: Arab News
The conflict in Myanmar is now three years old. It has created a power struggle within the military, and between the army, political class, and armed ethnic groups, a civil war with little hope for victory. India's policy towards Myanmar needs reassessment, given the rising refugee influx and security concerns.
Courtesy: Jurist
The parallel political and security crises in Myanmar and Manipur have led Indian authorities to consider abolishing the Indo-Myanmar Free Movement Regime (FMR). However, without long-term policy efforts to ameliorate the political and economic situation along the border, ending the FMR and fencing the Indo-Myanmar border is unlikely to resolve India’s security problems in the region.
Courtesy: CNBC
Prolonged violence between the military and opposition forces in Myanmar has eroded political stability in the country and led to large-scale displacement within the country. Despite diplomatic efforts led by ASEAN and other nations to find effective solutions, Myanmar’s on-ground situation appears unlikely to see any significant improvement in the near future.
Courtesy: Brookings Institution
Two years on since the military coup in 2021 and the continued absence of security and stability has only worsened the political and economic situation in Myanmar has only worsened in the absence of security and stability. India's long-standing strategic and economic interests in Myanmar will not be achieved if it doesn't proactively step up now to prevent the from becoming a flawed polity or a dependent of China.
Courtesy: Kuwait Times
The 56th ASEAN Foreign Ministers Meeting in Jakarta reflected the grouping’s resilience amidst transformative geopolitical changes in the Indo-Pacific. Striving for unity and centrality, ASEAN tackled challenges posed by COVID-19, economic slowdown, climate change, and U.S.-China competition. However, internal differences on sensitive issues like Myanmar have tested its credibility.
Courtesy: WION
ASEAN's efforts to restore democratic transition and political normalcy in Myanmar have come up against a wall of non-cooperation from the state's current military regime. The grouping's internal unity and credibility has also been challenged by two parallelly unfolding policy lines - one favoured by the grouping and the other pursued by Thailand and its supporters. India, which has vital national interests at stake in Myanmar, has supported ASEAN centrality and the 5PC on Myanmar, while also simultaneously demonstrating an understanding of the Thai unilateral policy.
Courtesy: Reuters
February 1, 2023 marks the second anniversary of the military coup in Myanmar. The country is now in a dire situation with a deteriorating economy, rising poverty and high unemployment. ASEAN, the UN and India continue to work with the Myanmarese military leadership, which is the only player able to provide solutions to alleviate the distress.