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At a time of high geo-political tensions, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia can play a calming role as it mediates between the U.S., Israel, and Iran. It is enabled by its own diplomacy, moving to strengthen ties with Iran, with the Gulf nations slowly coalescing on issues. For the first time, it is being done without the U.S. as interlocutor.
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Donald Trump has re-entered Washington with the backing of a solid political base, a redefined Republican Party, and a more seasoned presence on the international stage, including in the Middle East. Since his last imprint on that region in 2016, 2024 presents significant shifts: alliances redefined, regional power dynamics realigned, trade networks transformed, and urgent security challenges restructured. These changes demand strategic recalibration from all stakeholders.
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The Israel-Hezbollah war has become the dominant event in the Middle East. The Israeli army has entered southern Lebanon, and Israel’s air force is targeting selected Hezbollah strongholds in Beirut. The year-long Israel-Hamas war is now a regional conflict, with international actors from the Gulf monarchies to Iran, the U.S., Europe, and the UN, trying to influence the course of events towards a ceasefire.
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Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has secured his political survival since October 7 by managing his key constituencies – domestic and in the U.S. – and doubling down on his war strategy. Now he is making another calculated risk – to ensure a non-nuclear Iran, and thereby his continued political positioning.
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The Maritime Silk Road, the Belt and Road Initiative, and a sizeable catalogue of agreements with actors from Kabul to Tel-Aviv have been the basis for the growing presence of China spanning the military, diplomatic, economic, and political spheres in the Middle East.
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A potential escalation of the Iran-Israel conflict will affect energy supplies globally. Tempering the conflict will help the U.S. keep petrol prices down before its election, protect the oil and gas export traffic in the Persian Gulf, keep the surreptitious Iran-Malaysia-China oil sales going, and prevent a major headache for India, which imports over 80% of its oil.
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The May 31 ceasefire deal proposed by U.S. President Joe Biden is the best on offer for Hamas and Israel. Hamas has delayed its response to the deal, demanding Israeli withdrawal from Gaza first. This absolutist and maximalist position allows Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to conveniently evade his responsibility towards the U.S., a ceasefire deal, and his own people.
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On June 3, Claudia Sheinbaum made history by becoming the first woman elected President of Mexico. In terms of foreign policy and carving a geopolitical identity, this marks the beginning of a new stage of Mexican integration into the global agenda. It provides another dimension for international stability, including a revitalized Mexican perspective of the Middle East.
Courtesy: CivisDaily
The Oslo Accords’ two-state solution for Palestine-Israel, visualised Gaza and the West Bank as self-governing entities under the Palestinian Authority. That political hope existed in an expanding global economy led by the U.S. and secured by American armies, with the promise of capital flows and investments to develop Palestine on its way to statehood. All this changed in the 2000s, as both Israelis and Palestinians became significant regional actors.
Courtesy: The Jerusalem Post
The October 7 intrusion of Hamas into Israel has exposed a respectable military institution and one of the most influential intelligence agencies, impacting their image in a contest where prestige is crucial. It weakens the Palestinian Authority internally and abroad, diminishes any peace processes, buries hope of a two-state solution, and marks the beginning of an unprecedented phase of war with repercussions far beyond the region.